3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska against Vanderbilt in NCAA Tournament

Two of the most underseeded teams in the NCAA Tournament will meet in Oklahoma City on Saturday night for a berth in the Sweet 16.

Fourth-seeded Nebraska and fifth-seeded Vanderbilt, two teams with 27 wins this season, are aiming to make the Sweet 16 for the first time in a long time.

For the Commodores, it will be their first trip since 2007, while it would be the first ever for the Huskers, who packed Oklahoma City with fans on Thursday.

Vanderbilt is led by two dynamic guards. Tyler Tanner (6-2) averages 19 points and 5.3 assists per game. He shoots 37.3 percent on threes and 54.7 percent on twos. He also averages 2.3 steals.

Duke Miles, the other guard, leads the SEC with 2.7 steals per game. He also scores more than 16 points and shoots 36 percent from deep, while also leading the SEC with a free-throw percentage of 89.8. Tyler Nickel (6-7) averages three 3-pointers per game, shooting 39.9 percent.

Those players lead a dazzling offense that ranks eighth via Kenpom. The Nebraska basketball defense ranks seventh. The Commodores are a 1.5-point favorite, and looking ahead to a second-round NCAA Tournament game for the Huskers, here are three keys and a prediction.

Defense has to show up

Nebraska has played and defeated a top-10 offense before (Illinois). This is a game Nebraska can win, but the offense needs to win the battle of top-10 units.

Vanderbilt is 46th in assists, 26th in fewest turnovers, and shoots the heck out of the ball. This will be a tough challenge, but the crowd energy should give the defense a boost.

This reminds me a little of the Texas A&M game two years ago, but this Nebraska basketball team is much better on defense.

Take advantage of Vandy’s flaws

Vanderbilt ranks outside the top 300 in college basketball in offensive rebounds allowed per game by opponents and also free throws attempted by opponents.

Nebraska isn’t a great offensive rebounding team, but the Huskers pulled down 11 against Troy. They also shoot just 16 free throws per game.

The free-throw attempts need to be in the 20s. The offensive rebounds need to be in double-digits, and if Nebraska can take advantage of those weaknesses, that will move them even closer to victory.

3-point differential

Vanderbilt averages seven points more than its opponent at the 3-point line. Nebraska averages six. Both teams have taken advantage of being superior from deep all season. Pryce Sandfort made seven for the Huskers on Thursday.

Both teams rely heavily on the 3-point shot, and the team with the edge on points from beyond the arc will probably walk out of OKC as the winner.

Prediction: Nebraska 76, Vanderbilt 73

Nebraska makes one more 3-pointer and finds a way to advance.

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