3 predictions for Nebraska’s rematch against Northwestern

Nebraska basketball has dropped three of its past four games, and all of those losses have come against top-12 teams.

Starting on Saturday, with the 10-15 Northwestern Wildcats, the schedule starts to get a little easier. Northwestern isn’t your normal 10-15 squad. They are ranked in the top 70 of the Kenpom rankings. The Wildcats also just had a 16-point lead over Michigan earlier this week.

Chris Collins’ team will be playing Nebraska for the second time. The Northwestern roster might not be elite. Outside of Nick Martinelli, there isn’t much to write home about. Arrinten Page looked elite against Michigan but has been inconsistent.

Martinelli leads the Big Ten in scoring (22.5 ppg). Jayden Reid and Paige are the only others to average in double figures. The Wildcats are a good passing team. They don’t turn the ball and are top-20 nationally in assists.

They are also great at slowing down the tempo, which will surely be part of the plan against Nebraska basketball, just like in the first meeting. The Wildcats are forcing 10.9 turnovers per game. That’s a number to watch, but their offensive rebounding allowed to opponents (14th in the Big Ten) is a weakness.

Northwestern isn’t a good 3-point shooting team and is allowing Big Ten teams to shoot 35.5 percent from beyond the arc. Nebraska should be licking its chops about that, and looking ahead to Saturday (12 PM CST, BTN), here are three predictions for Nebraska vs. Northwestern.

Northwestern will be pesky

The Wildcats are better at home than on the road, like most teams. But they will find a way to muck up this game with aggressive double teams, turnovers, and a slower tempo. It will be a grind, much like the first game.

Nebraska basketball has averaged 11 turnovers per game in its losses. That will be an issue on Saturday, which will allow the Wildcats to hang around.

Nebraska will own the boards

After allowing three of the last four opponents to rebound at least 30 percent of their misses, it feels like the Huskers will be locked in on the glass. Northwestern isn’t a good defensive or defensive rebounding team either.

Nebraska isn’t really a great offensive rebounding team, but the Huskers will take advantage of Northwestern’s weakness on the glass, winning the rebounding battle with at least 10 offensive rebounds.

Another hot-shooting game

The 3-point shoot hasn’t been the problem for Nebraska. In its three losses, Nebraska is making 12.6 per game. This game is about getting back to basics: taking care of the ball, not fouling, and rebounding.

If Nebraska does that stuff and takes advantage of the open looks, Northwestern will inevitably give them, the Huskers should win, after another game with about 12 3-point makes.

Prediction: Nebraska 79, Northwestern 68.

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