3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball in Big Ten semis vs. Illinois

The last time Nebraska basketball played Illinois, the two teams went to overtime before the Fighting Illini escaped with an 87-84 win.

If there was one game Nebraska let get away this season, that was it (Minnesota too). But the Huskers have won seven of their last eight games and each of those wins has been by double figures. On Friday night, Nebraska won 93-66 as a five-point favorite over an Indiana team that had won five in a row.

Indiana was fighting for an NCAA tournament berth. Illinois isn’t worried about that. Neither is Nebraska. Seeding could be improved for the big dance, but this is about winning championships.

These opportunities haven’t come around often for the Huskers, who would play for the Big Ten title with a win. Here are three keys and a prediction (tip-off on CBS at approximately 2:30 CST).

Clean up the glass

If there was one reason Illinois rallied to beat Nebraska in the first meeting, it would have to be offensive rebounds, as Illinois grabbed 35 percent of its missed shots.

Nebraska basketball can’t allow that again. The Huskers haven’t been beaten this season when they win the rebounding battle, which should hold true in this matchup.

As long as the Huskers can limit Illinois on the offensive glass, they should have a good chance but if the Illini have a similar rebounding rate, especially on the offensive boards, it’ll spell trouble for the Huskers.

Keep splashing 3-pointers

Nebraska made 14 3-pointers on Friday night, with 11 of those coming in the first half. Keisei Tominaga caught fire. So did Brice Williams. But to beat Illinois, it’s going to take double-digit 3s again.

Illinois is a good defensive team. They try to limit the 3-point attempts and force opponents to win by making one-on-one plays. That’s something Nebraska can also do. Rienk Mast, Juwan Gary, Brice Williams, and Keisei can all score in one-on-one situations.

But this offense lives and dies by the 3-ball and hitting double-digit 3-pointers is a requirement for the Huskers to pull the upset Saturday.

Follow Ohio State’s formula

Terrence Shannon is a First-Team All-Big Ten selection for a reason but he’s not the only one for Illinois. Marcus Domask is the other. They are as good a tandem as there is in the Big Ten, but on Friday night, the Buckeyes did a solid job on both.

Shannon scored 28 points, but he needed 20 shots to get there. He also shot 11 free throws. Domask went 3-of-16 from the floor and finished with seven points. Of the 36 shots attempted by Illinois two best players, they made just 11 of them. They were 13-of-33 in the first meeting against Nebraska and the Huskers (26th in adjusted defense via Kenpom) are playing their best ball of the season on that end of the floor.

Shannon and Domask are going to take most of the shots. Nebraska needs to make it as difficult as possible and if they repeat the effort from the first game, minus the 15 offensive boards they allowed, they should be playing Purdue or Wisconsin for the Big Ten tournament championship on Sunday.

Big Ten semifinal prediciton: Nebraska vs Illinois (-4.5)

Illinois is a damn good team. I expect them to make the Sweet 16 this season. Yet, Nebraska isn’t far behind. The Huskers are the most underrated team, maybe in the country and they prove it on Saturday. Keisei Tominaga keeps rolling and Nebraska’s defense, plus rebounding, is just good enough to win, 78-73.

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