3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Oregon State

Due to double-digit wins over Murray State and Hawaii, Nebraska basketball has had a successful trip to Hawaii. But there is one more game to win: tonight against Oregon State in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic.

Nebraska basketball has played stellar defense in Hawaii, but the offense has been a little suspect. Brice Williams and Juwan Gary combined for 53 points in the win on Monday night. Williams had 31 in his second 30-point game of the season.

The Huskers are still fighting turnovers, with 27 in two games. Oregon State advanced to the championship game with an overtime win over Oakland. The Beavers are ranked 40th in the NET rankings meaning this would be a quadrant-1 win if the Huskers can get it.

Here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball (2.5-point favorite) against Oregon State.

Win the 3-point battle

Oregon State doesn’t shoot a ton of 3-pointers but they tend to make them, ranking 38th in college basketball in 3-point percentage (38.2).

Oregon State makes 7.9 treys per game (182nd) but ranks 283rd in attempts. Nebraska basketball, on defense, allows 30.1 3-point attempts per game (357th) but teams are making just 31.1 percent (107th). The Huskers shoot 32.8 from deep. That number has been trending up after a slow start but the Beavers allow just 27.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Hawaii also shot 38 percent from deep coming into Monday’s matchup, but they attempted just 20 triples and made five. Nebraska shot 7-of-17. If the Huskers can pull off something similar, which won’t be easy considering Oregon State has five players who average one 3-point field per game, including guard Nate Kingz who averages 1.9, they will be in a strong position to win the game.

Solving a tough Oregon State defense

The Beavers are 10-2 on the season and a big reason for those 10 wins has been the defense.

Oregon State is allowing just 59 points per game and 0.88 points per possession. Opposing teams are shooting just 37.6 percent from the field and 44.9 on 2-point attempts. Oregon State is 85th in blocks per game and 60th in steals per game. They also rank in the top 100 in assists allowed and turnovers forced.

However, when you look at the Beavers schedule, you can see why the numbers look so good. They have played just one Power-4 opponent (Oregon) and also lost to North Texas from the American.

Oregon State has beaten up the mediocre competition. That’s what you’re supposed to do, so give them credit, but the defense might not be as good as the numbers look.

Nebraska also has weapons. Gary and Williams played out of their minds on Monday. It’s hard to expect a repeat of that but Connor Essegian went off for double figures against Murray State, as did Andrew Morgan.

It will take all of those guys playing well to solve the Oregon State defense but looking at the schedule for the Beavers, it’s doable.

Take care of the ball

Oregon State forces 13.6 turnovers per game. Nebraska baskeball has averaged 13.5 turnovers per game so far in the Diamond Head Classic.

Murray State is a team that loves to force turnovers. Oregon State does too. Rollie Worster will need to be on point tonight because the Huskers can’t afford silly turnovers. Things haven’t always come easy for this offense. It’s streaky. Nebraska scored 52 against Michigan State, then 85 against Indiana six days later.

The Huskers have been held under 70 in each of the first two games, in part, because they gave away too many possessions. That can’t happen again.

If the turnovers are around 10, Nebraska has a great shot at winning this game. But if that number lands in the 12-15 range, it will be dicey.

Prediction

That being said, I think the Huskers will bring home the Diamond Head Classic title. Their length will bother the Beavers inside and at the 3-point line. Connor Essegian will have one of those nights and the Huskers will win, and cover the spread.

Nebraska 72, Oregon State 66 

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