After suffering a brutal road loss against Iowa earlier this week, Nebraska basketball has to pull itself up by the bootstraps and get back on the saddle because Purdue is looming on Sunday (11 CST, BTN).
And the Boilermakers are once again one of the best teams in the Big Ten. They are big. They have a pair of 7-footers on the roster, but one has been injured and there’s no Zach Edey.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, a 6-foot-7 forward is the leading scorer for the Boilermakers at 17 points per game but Purdue also has two stellar guards: Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Those two average 4.6 3-point makes per game for an offense that ranks 11th in adjusted efficiency according to Kenpom. Nebraska’s adjusted defense ranks 15th, so that could be the matchup that decides the game.
Like always, Purdue shoots extremely well from deep, 38 percent (30th) while also ranking 72nd in 3-point percentage defense (30.7 percent allowed). The Huskers have allowed a ton of 3-pointers this season and just gave up 15 to Iowa.
The 3-point defense has been much better, at least it was until Tuesday and that’s one thing that will need to be cleaned up. Brice Williams has been on fire. He’ll need to keep scoring the ball well, but Connor Essegian needs to get going after making just 2-of-12 from deep in the last two games.
This would be a quadrant-1 win for the 12-3 Huskers, who are also 2-2 in the Big Ten. Purdue is ranked 20th in the AP poll and is 4-1 in the Big Ten. If Nebraska has any idea of contending for the league title or even a top-four spot, this is a game they need to win.
Nebraska basketball vs. Purdue prediction
The Huskers are a five-point underdog going into this one. Purdue is tough to beat, especially at home. This is a different Purdue team than the one Nebraska fans are used to, but they do many of the same things.
This Purdue team does have a weakness inside and on the boards. Nebraska might be able to make some headway on the offensive glass. They’ll need to win those extra-possession battles (or not lose them in lopsided fashion) but the biggest key is the 3-point battle.
If the Huskers defend the way they did against Iowa, Purdue will win the game and cover the spread. That’s the bottom line. The defense needs to travel. Also, Brice Williams, Gary, Essegian, and Andrew Morgan need to be at their absolute best offensively.
Prediction: Purdue 79, Nebraska 72
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