3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. USC

The Nebraska basketball team was in a strong position to make the NCAA tournament before a four-game losing streak sent them hurtling back toward the bubble.

Nebraska is firmly on the bubble now and hoping that the bubble doesn’t burst. A loss to USC on Wednesday night certainly wouldn’t help. The Trojans are 11-7 overall and 3-4 in the Big Ten.

The Huskers are a 4.5-point favorite at home, but as we saw with Rutgers, the Vault doesn’t even guarantee a win anymore, as the 20-game winning streak was snapped last week.

It’s time to start a new winning streak. Nebraska needs to string some wins together. USC is in a similar situation but with much more work to do. The Trojans are also an up-and-down team. In the first season under Eric Musselman, they return about five percent of their production from last season.

It’s a whole new team. The results have been as expected. There is talent though and the Trojans recently beat Big Ten title contender Illinois on the road. They also beat Iowa at home before losing by 15 at home to Wisconsin in their last game.

The defense allowed over 1.2 points-per-possession to Iowa and Wisconsin but held Illinois to under a point-per-possession. Frankly, both teams have been hard to predict.

Here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. USC (8 PM CST, BTN).

Keep the Trojans around 1.0 points-per-possession

Nebraska’s defense has been horrendous during this four-game losing streak, at least for three of the games. The Huskers defended much better against Maryland, holding them to 1.0 points-per-possession exactly.

That’s much better than the 1.19 Nebraska allowed against Iowa, the 1.45 to Purdue, or even the 1.29 to Rutgers. Those are terrible numbers overall and much of that had to do with terrible 3-point defense.

The good news for Nebraska is that USC ranks 17th in 3-point makes and 18th in 3-point attempts among Big Ten teams. Their shooting percentage is 5th in the league though (35 percent) which doesn’t bode well for a Nebraska defense that ranks last in the Big Ten in 3-point shots allowed, 3-point makes allowed, and 16th in 3-point percentage defense (during conference play).

Chibuzo Agbo averages 2.1 3-point field goals per game. Desmond Claude is averaging 20 points per game in conference games and Saint Thomas has also come on strong recently. Those players are all 6-foot-5 or taller which could make for some interesting defensive matchups.

What’s even more concerning is that USC is second in the Big Ten in 2-point field goal percentage, while Nebraska ranks 15th in 2-point defense (56.1 percent). That’s as worrisome as the 3-point shooting.

Nebraska played well defensively against Maryland and they’ll need a similar effort Wednesday night.

Juwan Gary and Brice Williams need to bring it, on both ends

Brice Williams and Juwan Gary are asked to do a lot for this Nebraska basketball team. Not only are they expected to be the leading scorers, but they are also expected to guard the opponent’s best offensive players more often than not.

That will be the case on Wednesday night. Gary and Williams will each have a difficult defensive assignment. Williams and Gary made 50 percent of their shots against Rutgers, but in the other losses, their best-combined shooting percentage has been 39 percent.

Nebraska needs more from those two and with the season on the brink, it’s time for them to show out.

Get a boost from the bench

One thing about USC is that they have been playing just seven guys the past few games, outside of garbage time stuff, so Nebraska should have the advantage when it comes to the bench.

Andrew Morgan scored 12 points in the first half against Maryland off the bench. Sam Hoiberg also provided a spark on defense. Connor Essegian knocked down two 3-pointers. The Wisconsin transfer needs to go more shots tonight and if the Huskers are going to win, they need to have the advantage in points scored by the bench.

Prediction: Nebraska (-4.5) 77, USC 68 

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