3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska Basketball vs Michigan State

There is another huge game on tap for Nebraska Basketball on Tuesday and here are three keys and a prediction vs Michigan State.

Nebraska basketball will play Michigan State for the second time this season but this is a much different Huskers squad than the one that lost by 18 to Michigan State back in January.

For one, Nebraska has a different starting lineup. The Huskers lost two starters due to injury but have still found a way to play their best basketball as the calendar is about to shift to March.

While Michigan State is solidly in the NCAA tournament, Nebraska is hoping to make its way to the postseason too. An NIT bid certainly seems possible but if the Huskers keep winning, who knows?

Regardless, a win on Tuesday (8 PM CST tip) would put Nebraska two games over .500 and would ensure a non-losing season for the first time in the Fred Hoiberg era. Nebraska also has a chance to finish in the top 11 and avoid playing on the first day of the Big Ten tournament.

Beyond that, it’s Senior Day. Derrick Walker and Sam Griesel will walk, as will Emmanudel Bandoumel and Keisei Tominaga, although his future is still in doubt.

With all that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs Michigan State.

Better halfcourt defense

In the first meeting, Nebraska was atrocious on the defensive end of the floor, allowing Michigan State to score 1.12 points per possession. Michigan State rebounded 35 percent of their misses and they didn’t miss that much with an effective field-goal percentage of 53.8.

The stat that really jumps out though is assists. Michigan State was credited with 24 assists on 31 field goals. That’s over 75 percent and it shows that Michigan State was killing Nebraska with its actions and ball movements.

Tom Izzo coached teams are always really strong on the defensive end. They rebound, generally transition well and run really good stuff on the offensive end.  You have to communicate and be on your game defensively. Nebraska wasn’t in the first meeting, and it has to be better on Tuesday night.

Be competitive on the boards

Another mind-boggling stat from the first matchup was the fact that Michigan State doubled up the Huskers on the boards with 40 compared to 20. Nebraska is a pretty solid defensive-rebounding team, but Juwan Gary is really missed in that department.

Nebraska actually ranks 12th in the Big Ten in allowing offensive rebounds to opponents and whatever happens, the Huskers can’t allow Michigan State to beat them up on the glass.

The Spartans aren’t as good a rebounding team as they usually are but Nebraska knows what they are capable of. The Spartans are also fifth in the Big Ten in forcing turnovers, so again, limiting extra possessions will be huge for the Huskers.

Make some shots

The offense will need to be more productive than the 56 points scored in East Lansing. Part of that was a 2-of-14 effort from 3-point range. Keisei Tominanga played just 11 minutes in the first meeting, so this will be an entirely different offense to defend.

Tominaga is the perfect guy to play with Derrick Walker, who is an elite passer for a big because he moves so well without the ball. He also leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage when finishing at the rim.

The Japanese Steph Curry will need to get going in the Vault but the Huskers need to continue to run their offense through Derrick Walker. If Michigan State chooses to guard him one-on-one, Walker should have a nice day at the office and if he’s doubled (as I expect some of the time) the onus will be on the Huskers to make shots.

It’s easy to say but Michigan State is first in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage defense, second in overall field-goal percentage defense and sixth in 2-point defense, so the Spartans don’t make it easy. Then again, Rutgers has a stellar defense too and Nebraska tore that to shreds.

The key to that has been more than just Tominanga, but all the Nebraska guards playing well — Griesel, Jamarques Lawrence, Sam Hoiberg. Teams that win this time of year are getting good guard play and so is Nebraska.

It just needs to continue and against Michigan State, in addition to taking care of the basketball, the guards are going to have to make shots — tough, contested ones — to win.

Nebraska basketball vs Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State is a solid team. They have a bunch of former top-100 players. Joey Hauser, A.J. Hoggard, Tyson Walker, Mady Sissosko, and Malik Hall can all make things happen. The Spartans have solid guards and when Hauser gets going, they are tough to beat.

Hoggard and Walker are all capable of carrying the offense at times too. The Spartans have a lot of shooters as they always seem to do and if Nebraska’s defense isn’t on point, MSU will win this game.

However, I think Nebraska will find a way. It might be putting Griesel on Hauser for all we know, but I expect a much better defensive effort and on Senior night at the Vault, which is going to be insane, this team won’t be denied.

Nebraska 69, Michigan State 65. 

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