3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against St. Mary’s

Nebraska basketball is 3-0 on the season but after beating up on some weaker opponents, the Huskers have their first big test of the season against the St. Mary’s Gaels.

Both teams are 3-0 and will meet in the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Nebraska basketball has played a game there three years in a row and the women’s team rolled to a win on Saturday after scoring over 100 points.

Sioux Falls showdown.

🆚: Saint Mary's
📍: Sioux Falls, SD
⌚️: 12:00pm CT
📺: @BigTenNetwork
📻: @HuskersRadio pic.twitter.com/kC9VTMz9nu

— Nebraska Men's Basketball (@HuskerMBB) November 17, 2024

The Nebraska men’s basketball team has struggled to score this season, especially from deep, shooting just 25 percent from 3-point range. Nebraska is ranked 67th in the Kenpom rankings, while St. Mary’s is 43rd. So this would be a quadrant-1 win most likely.

St. Mary’s is a three-point favorite and here are three keys and a prediction.

Hit some shots

Nebraska basketball is shooting 24.6 percent from 3-point range this season. Yes, the actual number is even worse. That ranks 346th in all of college basketball.

You just don’t expect a Fred Hoiberg team to struggle that much to shoot. The Huskers did lose some major production from the 3-point line and it wasn’t just limited to Keisei Tominaga.

So far, the replacements haven’t been good enough but the shots will start falling at a higher rate at some point, hopefully, Sunday.

Clean up the glass

This has been another theme for Nebraska basketball and St. Mary’s is stellar on the offensive glass. They also have four players who average in double figures led by Paulius Murauskas who averages 18 points and 13 rebounds per game, including 2.3 offensive boards.

Luke Barrett is another name to know. He’s a 6-foot-6 guard who tears down four offensive rebounds per game in addition to scoring 11 points. As a team, the Gaels average 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which is 23rd in college hoops.

Nebraska basketball has allowed 12.9 offensive rebounds per game and it feels like they need to keep that number under 10 to win on Sunday.

Keep getting to the line

The offense ranks 187th in points per game. Nebraska basketball hasn’t shot well, but the Huskers have done well getting to the free-throw line.

Nebraska is 15th in college basketball with 29.7 attempts per game. The Huskers average 23 made free throws per game, which is fourth in college basketball.

The problem is that St. Mary’s plays good defense without fouling. They are 57th in free throw attempts allowed. Free throw percentage doesn’t really matter on defense, but the Gaels don’t put teams on the line much, while Nebraska basketball has lived there.

That will be an interesting battle to watch and whoever wins it, probably wins the game.

Prediction

At some point, the shots will start to fall. The Husker women scored 100 in the same building and I think the lid finally comes off the hoop. Nebraska will have a better day from deep and will get to the free-throw line just enough to score a resume-building win.

Nebraska 75, St. Mary’s 71

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