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Dylan Raiola NIL Value Explained



Nebraska football


At the turn of the century, sporting events on the Internet were a rarity.  The term streaming had barely been introduced into the American lexicon.  Netflix was a mail-order business.  Smart TVs with a plethora of apps weren’t mainstream. Games were broadcast exclusively on television. Newspapers were the most reliable source of written content yet their websites were still rudimentary at best. For that time being in the not-so-distant past, sports media consumption has certainly morphed into a world of its own.  It would have been impossible back then to imagine what sports on the Internet would look like today.

The recruiting services timeline

In 2001 Rivals was born. In the same year, opened its doors.  Then ESPN came to the table and introduced its own recruiting department in 2003.  In ’10, the founder of Rivals split to form another similar site: 2017 saw the merger of 247 with Scout.  The most recent company into the recruiting space is On3 which debuted in ’21. That brings us current with the 4 major recruiting sites.  All these sites analyze, evaluate, and rate players and teams a little differently.

However, the only site amongst the ‘Big 4’ that delves into the world of NIL valuations for players is On3.  They deliver news, analysis, data, and insight to fans, athletes, schools, and brands. The company helps connect these communities across the college sports landscape. They assist athletes to make more informed decisions while at the same time aiding schools and brands to better manage their resources.

On3 empowers athletes to make the best NIL decisions

One of the most controversial and misunderstood concepts in the NIL era is the athlete’s value.  On3 allows athletes to glimpse into their perceived value.  Through a comparative tool in the On3 database players can see the change in their roster value based on a particular school they attend.

In this article, I am going to use Dylan Raiola as my example since he is at the forefront of all Husker fans at the moment.  It has been widely reported that the 5 Star QB out of Chandler, AZ is currently looking at USC, Oregon, Georgia, & Nebraska.  Raiola is going to have a different NIL value at each of those universities.  The $249K is based upon him being uncommitted.

The easiest way to explain this complex process is to work backward so I’m going to start by summarizing Raiola and then I will go back and explain what all those foreign terms mean.  The PIE score helps set Roster Value and Brand Value.  Simply add those two together to come up with his (PAV) Projected Annual Value which in Dylan’s case is $249,000.  Simple enough.  Think again.

What is the PIE score?

For each athlete, the On3 NIL valuation algorithm takes into account three primary factors: performanceinfluence, and exposure to create their PIE score.

  • Performance: Performance is determined by how the athlete performs on the field. Big games against key opponents, becoming nationally ranked, and winning national awards will have the most impact on an athlete’s valuation. Participation in college sports is weighted heavier in most cases than those that participate at the high school level. A few exceptions are Bronny James and Arch Manning. Last names matter.
  • Influence: Influence is determined by the athlete’s own social media authority. Social media followers on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, & TicTok are the primary factors that determine influence.  Here is a snapshot of Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.

  • Exposure: Exposure is determined by several factors including whether the athlete is in high school or college, which school the athlete attends, and their position. Athletes that attend universities with a larger fan base and media attention are likely to see a positive impact on valuation. Athletes who play a position with higher visibility (ie. quarterback vs. center) are likely to see a higher valuation.

The Projected Annual Valuation (PAV) is a public figure. PIE ratings along with the athlete’s personal Brand Value Index and Roster Value Index are available ONLY to the athlete.  That’s why you see the paddle lock icon on the Raiola screenshot above.

Brand Value & Roster Value

The On3 NIL valuation process establishes the overall NIL market and projects growth rate by measuring two categoriesBrand Value Index and Roster Value Index.  This algorithm doesn’t set an athlete’s NIL valuation for their entire career. Rather calculations are projects out to as far as 12 months into the future but no further.

The Roster Value Index collects data from all school Collectives. It’s a calculation of an athlete’s respective value to their team. It is the amount an athlete hopes to receive primarily through a school’s collective, from sources such as camps, appearances, local businesses, licensing, memorabilia, commercials, etc.  This is where the 1890 Initiative or the Big Red Collective comes into play.  An example of this is the Decoldest Crawford commercial for SOS Heating and Cooling.

The Brand Value Index measures the national licensing and sponsorship market. Brand Value is generated when an athlete’s Performance, Influence, and Exposure create awareness on a regional and national scale.  Thus its creates advertising and sponsorship opportunities beyond Roster Value.  Brand Value revenue originates from the athlete’s network and is not sourced from collectives/schools.  USC WR Jordan Addison got a reportedly $3 million sponsorship through an airline company as an enticement to come play in LA.

Brand Value and Roster Value establish the overall NIL marketplace. Athletes participate based on their individual Brand and Roster Values as a starting point.  Once again since Brand and Roster Values are only available to the athlete I will use John Smith screenshot below as an example.  We’ve already learned the PIE score factors into Roster and Brand Value.  Once those are determined the next step is to sum the two values to find the (PAV) Projected Annual Value.  In this case, John Smith has a $99,000 valuation projecting out for the next year.  $56,250 + $42,750… Once again these two figures are private but the $99,000 is public.

Projected Overall NIL Market

The last variable is the overall NIL market size.  The marketplace is currently estimated at $750M-$1B and predicted to grow into a $3-$5B industry within the next five years. Much of this growth is expected in group licensing and branding. In parallel, the collective market size will grow as they become more integrated with school fundraising activities.

Valuations can change by the week

Individual collective size can impact an athlete’s NIL Valuation from week to week.  Other factors such as PIE scores, verified deals, and changes in the overall NIL market size can affect the valuation.  An athlete can see a significant change in their influence and exposure ratings through their social media accounts, which makes an immediate impact on their overall valuation.

But player performance will always lead to the biggest increase in valuation. Especially in a nationally televised game.  Another factor is the impact of being nationally ranked at your position.  Athletes who constantly market themself and get deals will see a jump in their valuation. On the bright side, not everyone needs to be the top athlete in their sport to generate NIL income.

Collectives are factored in valuations

On3 has created a separate roster management algorithm, which takes data from collectives, tiers the athletes based on their performance, and calculates their respective roster value at the school they are currently attending.

On3 has taken over the NIL valuation space and is the industry’s leading index that sets high school and college athletes’ projected annual value.  So there you have it.  The A B C’s of NIL player valuation.



More crystal ball projections for Nebraska Football ahead of big weekend



Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska football has landed two more crystal ball projections ahead of a huge recruiting weekend for the Huskers.

There are going to be 26 recruits on campus this weekend visiting the Nebraska football program. Five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola is the headliner, along with a number of other top-100 recruits and the top-ranked player in the state of Nebraska Carter Nelson.

It’s one of the most impressive visit weekends for Nebraska football recruiting in a long time, maybe ever, but how many commitments are going to come this weekend if any?

I certainly wouldn’t expect a pledge from Raiola. As much as Nebraska football fans might want that, the top-ranked QB in the 2024 class just scheduled an official visit in June with Georgia, the defending national champs. This is on the heels of another visit to UGA, so the Huskers need to recapture some momentum.

The key objective with many recruits will be getting them back for an official visit. Gatlin Bair is a name that comes to mind since the kid is ranked 40th overall in the 2024 class via 247 sports. He’s visiting this weekend and if the Huskers got him back for an official visit in June, they’d have to feel good about their chances.

However, Nebraska football could land a couple of commitments this weekend. One candidate is three-star tight end Ian Flynt. He visited back in January, has family ties to Nebraska football, and just received another crystal ball projection for the Huskers. That’s four total for the No. 456 overall recruit in the 2024 class (247 composite).

A commitment might not happen this weekend, but I’d look for a commitment date coming soon out of this weekend. Flynt is out of Texas and so is three-star offensive lineman Gibson Pyle, who also received a crystal ball projection on Friday (Flynt did too).

Pyle is 735th overall and he teased an announcement a couple of weeks ago but it didn’t come. He’s got six crystal ball predictions for the Huskers and that’s another potential commitment to watch out for this weekend.

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Nebraska Football hosting elite tight end, 4-star EDGE to return



Nebraska Football
Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

The Nebraska football recruiting buzz has been off the charts and another top-100 recruit is on campus today plus more on the Huskers.

Matt Rhule and the Nebraska football coaching staff have been doing a spectacular job on the recruiting trail. The Huskers are set to host 26 recruits this weekend and that number could grow.

However, those weren’t the only visitors for Nebraska football this week. On Monday, the first day of spring ball, the Huskers hosted a three-star offensive lineman and also Willis McGahee IV, a four-star EDGE.

McGahee is out of Miami, Florida and his dad, of course, was a legendary running back for the Hurricanes who also played for the Bills and Ravens in the NFL. The pedigree is there and the 6-foot-1, 225 pounder who is actually a three-star in the 247 sports composite rankings, is expected to return for the Nebraska football spring game.

McGahee is listed by 247 sports as a linebacker, but he’s an EDGE. He had 13 sacks as a junior and he’s got the kind of athleticism that Rhule loves. This is definitely heading in the right direction for the Huskers but Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and UCF are all set to get visits too and are in the mix.

Nebraska football hosting top 100 tight end

Rhule and the Huskers are trying to make the state of Missouri a bigger priority and so far, it’s worked pretty well. Nebraska football is making headway in the state, especially with one of the best Missouri prospects in the 2024 class in Jaden Reddell.

Reddell is 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, and out of Raymore, Missouri. He’s ranked 68th overall in the 247 sports composite rankings for the 2024 class and is fourth among tight ends, as well as a third-ranked player from the Show Me State. He’s also visiting Nebraska football on Thursday according to his Twitter account.

The On3 prediction machine currently gives the Missouri Tigers a slight advantage, but this will be the second trip for Reddell to the Nebraska football program. The next objective will be getting him back for an official visit in June.

That’s the same with McGahee. If he comes back for the spring game and then takes an official visit, you’d have to feel good about Nebraska’s chances. And while fans want commitments, visits are an important part of building the relationship that can lead to a commitment down the line.

As of now, Rhule and company are doing exactly what they should on the recruiting trail and it’s refreshing to see.

For More Nebraska content, follow us on Twitter, like our Facebook Page, and Subscribe to the Husker Big Red YouTube Channel. You can also find out podcast on Apple or Spotify

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Nebraska Football in good spot for 2024 WR Gatlin Bair



Nebraska football has been recruiting at a high level ever since the new coaching staff stepped on campus. They have made their recruiting priorities clear, and that includes 2024 Idaho wide receiver Gatlin Bair.

Bair is the ninth overall wide receiver in the 2024 class. The wide receiver is the top player in the state of Idaho, and has a 95 overall numerical ranking on 247DSorts. He has two schools in the lead for his recruitment in Michigan and Nebraska. Garret McGuire is taking care of Bair on Nebraska’s end, and it appears the coach is making a good impression.

Bair could give Nebraska a downfield weapon that spreads the field. This is something that Nebraska football wants in the program, as they are targeting playmakers that open up the offense. He has the size and speed to be a legitimate threat, at six-foot-two, 180 pounds. The Huskers have gotten several playmakers already in the offense. Bair would fit the bill, and make the wide receiver room even deeper.

Initially, he was one of the more under-recruited prospects, but now more programs are catching on. Even still, the wide receiver spoke highly of the Nebraska football program during a recent interview with the Omaha World-Herald. Bair is coming to Lincoln this weekend, along with several other prospects for the big Junior Day. He really likes the energy   surrounding the program, and the willingness of McGuire to learn as transcribed by Sam McKewon.

“There’s just an energy about the program,” Bair said Tuesday evening. “It just seems like every single person in the building really wants to turn that program around and get things rolling. I was really drawn to that, and what they’re trying to do.”

“I really like people who are open to learning,” Bair said of the 23-year-old McGuire, perhaps the youngest assistant in major college football. “I don’t like people who are set in their ways. I really enjoy the fact that he’s open to learning and progressing. That would allow me to progress with him at the same time, allow me to grow.”

It seems as though Nebraska football recruiting pitch has been very good to this point. Several fans were worried about McGuire’s age, but it seems as though that is not a problem for recruits. It certainly bodes well for Nebraska football that Bair thinks so highly of them. This could be extremely important heading into the upcoming weekend.

Nebraska football will not have a shortage of wide receivers, nor will they have a shortage of talent in the room. Bair’s recruitment and subsequent interest is proof of that.

For More Nebraska content, follow us on Twitter, like our Facebook Page, and Subscribe to the Husker Big Red YouTube Channel. You can also find out podcast on Apple or Spotify

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