3 keys to a Nebraska football win over Michigan State

Fresh off a bye week, Nebraska football has eight Big Ten games remaining, starting on Saturday against 3-1 Michigan State.

The Spartans, like the Huskers, were undefeated in non-conference play. MSU knocked off Boston College, as well as some lesser opponents, but dropped its Big Ten opener to USC, 45-31.

Led by second-year head coach Jonahan Smith, the Spartans are 48th in scoring offense (34.2) but ranks 115th in scoring defense, allowing 28.8 points per game.

The Spartans have the uber-talented Aidan Chiles at quarterback. He’s starting to generate some first-round buzz as the redshirt sophomore has completed 68.6 percent of his passes to go along with nine touchdowns and one interception.

Chiles has taken a big leap foward, just as Dylan Raiola has. Nebraska football is a double-digit favorite in this critical matchup for both teams, and here are three keys to a Huskers victory.

Slow down Chiles

Matt Rhule has been great about not losing games he is supposed to win. Outside of UCLA in 2024, the Huskers have mostly taken care of business in situations like these.

The biggest concern about this matchup for me is Chiles. He’s throwing for 217 yards per game. He’s also rushing for 38 yards per game. It feels like those numbers don’t reflect the true threat Chiles can be.

We saw Bryce Underwood and Brendan Sorsby rush for over 150 yards combined and score three touchdowns on the ground. Even going back to that UCLA game, Ethan Garbers gave Nebraska fits.

Running quarterbacks are hard to defend. Chiles is no different. He’s also got a first-round arm, so the Blackshirts need to be ready. Nebraska has been an elite pass defense so far this season, but when Michigan was running for 286 yards, it didn’t really need to pass. Cincinnati also ran for over 200 yards.

So is the Nebraska pass defense really that good?

Stop the run

Michigan State isn’t Michigan. The Spartans don’t have a back like Justice Haynes. However, in two games against Power-4 teams, Boston College and USC, Michigan State has averaged 131 yards per game. They have only averaged 3.8 yards per attempt, so if Nebraska’s run defense is worth its salt at all, it will find a way to slow down Michigan State.

Chiles will be a factor running the ball. Nebraska has really struggled to defend QB scrambles, but if the Huskers allow Makhi Frazier, who is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt this season for the Spartans, to average more than five yards per attempt, like they have allowed every other opposing starting running back to achieve, it could be a long day.

Protect Dylan Raiola

The Spartans, like Nebraska, only have six sacks through four games. This isn’t an elite pass-rushing team. Once again, this isn’t Michigan. It’s very much a little brother in the trenches compared to the Wolverines.

Matt Rhule said he has a plan for offensive tackle, but wouldn’t reveal what it was. He said the same thing about the backup running back position.

It will be interesting to see what happens, especially at tackle. That’s far more important to the outcome of this game. Jordan Hall is a playmaker for MSU who has two sacks and four tackles for loss. He’s a linebacker, but is one of the few impact players on a defense that is allowing 263 passing yards per game (381 total) and 2.5 touchdown passes on average.

If Raiola has time, he will shred the Spartans. That seems like the easiest path to victory for Nebraska, and if the offensive line plays well, Nebraska should score over 30 points on Saturday, which might be needed to win.

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