Two factors will decide Nebraska vs. Iowa Sweet 16 showdown

Nebraska basketball and Iowa are each on magical rides this March.

The Hawkeyes haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since 1999. Nebraska has never reached the Sweet 16 before this season, before its dramatic win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.

One way or another, the magic will end for someone on Thursday night in Houston. Both teams have reason to be confident. Iowa beat Nebraska in Iowa City, holding the Huskers to 52 points, while dominating them on the boards.

Nebraska basketball, meanwhile, earned an overtime win in the last game of the regular season. Sam Hoiberg and Cale Jacobsen were the heroes, at least late in the game.

Nebraska is a 2.5-point favorite. It’s truly a toss-up, though.

As far the surprise factor. Nebraska making the Sweet 16 isn’t a shock. The Huskers were a slight underdog against Vandy, but Iowa was a massive underdog against Florida, the defending national champions.

Iowa pulled off two upsets, at least according to seeding, to get here. How did they do it?

Offensive rebounding more than anything else.

Key for Nebraska basketball isn’t anything fancy

Statistically speaking, Iowa isn’t a great offensive rebounding team. The Hawkeyes average nine offensive rebounds per game (323rd in college basketball). Their opponents only average eight per game, but still, they aren’t a great offensive rebounding team.

However, in the win over Nebraska (in Iowa City), the Hawkeyes had an offensive rebounding rate of 35.9 percent. Against Clemson, that number was 44 percent. Against Florida, a really good rebounding team, the Hawkeyes had a 33-percent rate, five points higher than the Gators.

Iowa forces 13 turnovers per game, which ranks among the top 100 teams in college basketball, but Florida (15.9) and Clemson (4.4) didn’t lose because of turnover rate (percent of possessions ending in turnovers).

That doesn’t mean turnovers won’t be an issue for Nebraska. The Huskers turned it over on 15 percent of their possessions against Vanderbilt, while allowing an offensive rebounding rate of 31.

When you add in Vanderbilt’s 13 3-pointers, it’s hard to believe Nebraska won. The Huskers took fewer field goals, made fewer 3-pointers, fewer free throws, and lost the rebounding/turnover battles. Yet, their offense was so efficient that it didn’t matter.

Most of the time, when Nebraska loses the turnover/offensive rebounding battle, it loses the game. That’s true of most teams,  but those are two areas where the Huskers are especially vulnerable.

So if the Huskers are going to advance to the Elite 8, they need to win the rebounding battle, the turnover battle, or at least be close in both.

As long as the Huskers do that, the odds should be in their favor.

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