3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Michigan State

In what will be the biggest Nebraska basketball game in decades, the Huskers will host ninth-ranked Michigan State on Friday night in a battle of top-13 teams.

The 13th-ranked Nebraska basketball team enters the game 13-0. Michigan State is 12-1, but is also a 2.5-point favorite. Coached by Tom Izzo, the Spartans are a veteran team with a ton of talent, boasting seven top-55 recruits on the roster, six who are actively playing (one redshirt).

What’s even more interesting is that seven of the nine players, who average double figures in minutes for Michigan State, have only been part of the MSU program. That’s just two transfers.

The Spartans have defeated Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina this season. Their only loss was against Duke, so this will be a massive test for a Nebraska team which does own a ranked win over Illinois.

The Vault might be as loud tonight as its ever been. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Shoot the lights out

Fred Hoiberg’s teams tend to live and die with the 3-point shot. That’s not quite the case with this team, however; Michigan State’s biggest weakness on defense is allowing 3-point attempts.

The Spartans allow 26.6 3-point shots per game (312th) and 8.2 makes per game (249th). The Huskers actually rank worse than that in both categories defensively. Yet, Nebraska is 20th in 3-point attempts (30.2) and 41st in college basketball in 3-point makes (10.2). Nebraska has six players who average at least one 3-point field goal per game, and six who shoot 34 percent or better.

MSU is an elite defensive squad, but Nebraska’s 3-point shooting will allow them to take advantage of the one area of weakness. Michigan State, on the other hand, is 212th or worse is 3-point makes and attempts on offense.

Keep Michigan State off the glass

The MSU offense isn’t dynamic but offensive rebounds are one area where the Spartans excel, with 14.4 per game (15th). Nebraska basketball, on the other hand, allows 10.9 per game (209th). The Huskers are 26th in college basketball in defensive rebounds per game, so they are capable.

Jaxson Kohler, the Spartans’ 6-foot-9 leading scorer, averages 3.7 offensive rebounds per game. He also shoots 46.7 percent from 3-point range, averaging a double-double (13 and 10). Carson Cooper averages 2.2, while Coen Carr, Cameron Ward, and Jordan Scott each average at least 1.5.

Winning the rebounding battle is essential.

Win the paint

Nebraska has been one of the most effective 2-point shooting teams in college basketball at 61.6 percent (17th). The Huskers are great at getting to the rim and finishing.

Michigan State will challenge that. They are only allowing teams to shoot 46.6 percent on 2-point attempts. The Spartans are 33rd in blocked shots per game (5), and the team that wins this battle might just win the game.

Rienk Mast will have to play well. Pryce Sandfort, too. Sam Hoiberg and Braden Frager shoot over 60 percent on 2-point shots, as do Mast and Sandfort. Berke is right there, too. If those shots fall at a high rate, and Nebraska can handle the physicality of the Spartans, that could tell the story.

Prediction

It should be a magical night in Lincoln. This is the best Nebraska basketball team, maybe ever. The Spartans won’t be an easy team to beat, but it’s hard to pick against Nebraska at the Vault.

Nebraska 80, Michigan State 77. 

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