3 bold predictions for Nebraska football vs. Northwestern

The term must-win game is overused. But for Matt Rhule and the Nebraska football program, Saturday’s game against Northwestern feels like a true must-win game.

A loss to Northwestern is honestly too terrible to think about. Not because the Wildcats aren’t a good team. They are. They continue to overachieve under David Braun, who happens to have the same record in his third season with the Wildcats as Matt Rhule, although he’s 10-12 in Big Ten games, compared to Rhule’s mark of 8-14.

The Wildcats and Huskers have matching 5-2 records. Northwestern is 3-1 in the Big Ten, while Nebraska is 2-2 after dropping a 24-6 game to Minnesota last Friday. Northwestern is fresh off a 19-0 shutout of Purdue.

On paper, with the Wildcats’ ability to run, averaging 190 yards per game, and their stubborn nature of running the damn ball (three games in a row with over 40 rushing attempts), there are reasons for Nebraska football fans to worry.

The Huskers are a 7.5-point favorite. Matt Rhule promised that his team would show up this week, and here are three bold predictions, plus our prediction against the spread for Nebraska vs. Northwestern.

Emmett Johnson is fed the ball and responds

The biggest mistake Nebraska football made last week was not giving the ball to Emmett Johnson 25-30 times. That’s what was required to win that game. Dana Holgorsen, for whatever reason, just didn’t see it.

With backups in the game on the offensive line, the Huskers should have leaned on the run game. They were getting 5.2 yards per clip on first-down runs, yet attempted just two runs after first down all game.

That has to meet the legal definition of insanity.

I believe that’s what Rhule meant this week when he said the coaches need to focus on what “we can do, not what we want to do.”

Translation: When the offensive line is giving up a sack on nine of 10 drives, run the ball. It slows down the pass rush, puts the QB in more manageable situations, and it was working. Johnson had 63 yards on 14 carries.

Northwestern has the 13th-best rush defense in the Big Ten. The offensive line should want to prove a point, so lean into it, Dana.

Johnson, who has been Nebraska’s best offensive player, deserves 25 touches. The season is on the line. If he gets them, 150 total yards seems reasonable.

Nebraska wins the rushing battle

Three of the five Power-4 teams the Huskers have faced have gone over 200 yards rushing. Only one team, Michigan State, was held under 100 yards, and some sack yardage helped. The Huskers still allowed two rushing touchdowns in that game.

Nebraska’s run defense won’t magically be fixed in this game. However, the Huskers should be more fundamentally sound this week, after some come-to-Jesus moments. I also expect better energy and effort after a dismal showing last week.

The Wildcats will still have success rushing the ball. Yet, Nebraska will get the lead and play with it most of the day. That will change things for the Wildcats a little, which in turn will allow the Huskers to rush for more yards, even though it will be close.

Nebraska is 2-0 in Big Ten games where they have rushed for more yards than the opponent. It needs to happen again on Saturday.

Dylan Raiola beats Northwestern’s season high in pass yards allowed

The Wildcats have been stellar on defense in their three Big Ten wins, holding UCLA to 14 points, Penn State to 21, and Purdue to zero. Oregon was the only team to do real damage with 34. The other three teams combined to score 35.

One reason for that is that not a single quarterback has passed for over 200 yards on the Wildcats this season. Dante Moore passed for 178, although he connected on 16-of-20 attempts. Nico Iamaleava completed 19 of 27 passes for 180 yards. Malachi Singleton had 187 for Purdue last week. The Boilermakers were the first team to pass for over 200, as the backup threw for 50-some yards, but still.

Part of the reason is the ball-control offense. Northwestern’s pass defense isn’t elite. The pass rush has been good at getting pressure, but it has only 11 sacks, which is tied for 15th in the Big Ten with Nebraska.

Raiola won’t have a huge game. It will probably feel like Cincinnati, but he will take three or fewer sacks and pass for over 200 yards, becoming the first QB to do that in 2025 against Northwestern.

Prediction: Nebraska 24, Northwestern 17

This might feel like an old Big Ten West game. The defenses will have their moments. It will be a short possession game, and Nebraska will get good enough play from the offensive line to win. It won’t be pretty, but it doesn’t have to be.

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