3 keys and a prediction in huge game for Nebraska basketball vs. Minnesota

Nebraska basketball hosts Minnesota on Sunday in what amounts to a must-win game. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Earlier this season, Nebraska basketball blew a double-digit lead at Minnesota. It was an ugly loss but one that spurred a turnaround in the Huskers, who beat Michigan State a few days after.

On Sunday, the Huskers (19-8, 9-7) will take on Minnesota (17-9, 8-7) for the second time this season, only this time around, it will be in front of a sold-out Pinnacle Bank Arena.

After a double-digit loss on the road to Northwestern last week, Nebraska has rebounded with wins over Penn State and Indiana (on the road). That was the first road win in conference play by Nebraska, who has an outside shot of getting a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament.

The Huskers host Minnesota and Rutgers, in addition to road trips to Michigan and Ohio State. They are all winnable games and if they can get three of four, I feel like they’d be a top-4 seed in the Big Ten tourney and completely off the NCAA tournament bubble.

Nebraska is among the last eight teams in the field but is projected to avoid the first four. A win on Sunday will help keep the momentum moving forward and here are three keys and a prediction.

Limit extra possessions

We talk about this a lot but the extra possession plays are going to be huge on Sunday and by that I mean things such as turnovers and offensive rebounds.

In the first matchup, Nebraska turned the ball over on 23 percent of its offensive possessions. The Huskers also allowed Minnesota to rebound 34 percent of its misses.

In just about any level of basketball, if you turn it over a 1/4 of the time and allow your opponent to rebound 1/3 of its missed shots, it’s going to be hard to win.

Minnesota forces 11.2 turnovers per game but also gives it away 12 times per game. The Gophers weren’t super clean in the first game and turned it over 19 percent of the time. Nebraska was just sloppier but that can’t be the case Sunday at the Vault.

They need to take care of the ball, as they have done lately, and limit the offensive boards. If Minnesota wins those categories, it could easily win the game.

Live by the three

Both teams shoot the ball well from 3-point range, although Nebraska shoots the deep ball at a higher volume. Still, the 3-point defense needs to be on point for the Huskers because Minnesota shoots 35.9 percent as a team and has three stellar shooters in Cam Christie, Mike Mitchell, and Elijah Hawkins. Those guys all make at least 1.4 treys per game and the Huskers have to limit their open looks.

They forced Indiana into difficult shots. The defensive rotations and contests have been better, plus the 3-point shooting of Nebraska basketball has been a strength all season. Keisei Tominaga and Jamarques Lawrence made nine treys alone in the win at Indiana.

Minnesota’s 3-point defense ranks 211th in college hoops, at least in terms of opposing shooting percentage, so the Huskers should be able to win the battle for perimeter points.

Don’t settle

Minnesota is a decent defensive team and Dawson Garcia is a solid rim protector. They also play a slower tempo but the fact is that the Gophers’ opponents rank 346th in 2-point shots attempted this season.

Nebraska is 317th in college basketball in 2-point shots attempted so that plays into the Gophers’ hands, especially since the Huskers shoot 52 percent on 2s.

Rienk Mast, Juwan Gary, Keisei Tominaga, and Lawrence can all shoot the ball well from deep, but the Huskers need to get the ball inside, attack the basket, and don’t settle for too many 3s.

Josiah Allick could be an important presence and regardless of how important the 3-point shot is for Nebraska in this matchup, if they stay patent, they don’t have to live and die so much on the deep shot.

Nebraska vs. Minnesota prediction

The Huskers are a 6.5-point favorite at home according to DraftKings. But Minnesota has won five of their last seven games and a win on Sunday could get them into the NCAA tournament conversation.

Both teams are in the mix for a top-4 seed in the conference tournament, which comes with a double bye, but this Nebraska team seems to have raised its level of play again.

The defense has improved and since coming off the bench, Lawrence has been spectacular. It feels like Nebraska is starting to play its best basketball at just the right time and my prediction is a double-digit win.

Nebraska 81, Minnesota 69

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