3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska in showdown vs. Michigan

The wait is almost over, as Nebraska basketball will take on Michigan in a top-five showdown on Tuesday night in Ann Arbor.

That Nebraska basketball is taking part in a top-5 matchup is hard to comprehend. Fred Hoiberg’s team has continually exceeded expectations this season with a brand of basketball that can win in the NCAA tournament.

The front court has been one of the best in the Big Ten. Pryce Sandfort, in Big Ten games, is averaging 19.7 points per game, shooting 54 percent from the field, 47 percent from 3-point range, and 90 percent at the free throw line.

Sam Hoiberg has been as good as any point guard in the conference. He just makes winning plays, on both ends, even if casuals don’t see it in the box score. The dude also leads Nebraska is defensive rebounding.

Nebraska is 12th in the Kenpom rankings. Michigan is second with a top-5 offense and defense. The Wolverines have lost once, at home to Wisconsin. They have defeated three AP Top-25 opponents this season by 30 points or more, becoming the first team to ever do that.

The front court is incredible. Yaxel Lendeborg should be playing in the NBA. 7-foot-3 Aday Mara has been dominant this season, on both ends of the court, as has Morez Johnson. Mara does have some issues with bigs who can shoot, and Nebraska has a couple.

Michigan also hasn’t been quite that dominant in the Big Ten. They have won their last four games all by double digits, but Nebraska can say the same thing, with four double-digit wins in a row. These two teams, each in the top five, have combined records of 38-1 (17-1 in the Big Ten).

It should be an epic clash. It’s one of the most important games in Nebraska basketball history, considering what it could mean for the Big Ten title race and NCAA tournament seeding. So with all of that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction.

Shoot the lights out

For Nebraska, this is non-negotiable. They have to shoot well from beyond the arc. The Huskers are making 11 3-pointers per game during Big Ten games. They will need a similar performance to that on Tuesday.

Michigan allows teams to shoot 30.4 percent from deep on the season, ranking in the top 50 overall in college basketball. They have three players who start who are at least 6-foot-9, and they will switch 1-4.

That tends to mean fewer assisted looks and more one-on-one plays. That’s not Nebraska basketball. They average 18 assists per game. Ball movement is essential.

What’s even more essential is that the Huskers shoot between 35 and 40 percent from three. Low 30s just won’t cut it.

Be even in the 2-point battle

Many observers are focused on the 3-point shot for this game, with good reason. But Nebraska is more than a 3-point shooting team. The Huskers make 60.2 percent of their 2-point attempts (14th in college basketball). They also allow teams to make 47.6 percent of their attempts, which is 65th. That 13-point difference is huge. That’s something you see from elite teams.

As much as the 3-point shot matters, defending the three and defending the rim are just as important. Strong 2-point defense also indicates forcing teams into tough 2s, which is another staple of a strong defense.

The issue is that Michigan is ranked second nationally in 2-point shooting percentage (64.3) and 2-point percentage defense (41.1). That’s a 23-point advantage. In their loss to Wisconsin, the Wolverines shot 58 percent, the same number as Wisconsin.

If Nebraska wants to beat Michigan, it needs to do that. Regardless of the 3-pointers, if the Wolverines have a massive edge in the paint, at the rim, and on 2-point attempts, that might be the ballgame.

Keeping Michigan off the line

Another game within the game will be at the free-throw line. This is another strength vs. strength. Nebraska is like an old John Beilein Michigan team, even more so than Michigan. The Huskers have the fifth-fewest turnovers in all of college basketball, and the ninth-fewest fouls.

Teams attempt just 13.6 free throws per game (4th fewest in college basketball). That’s not something people talk about, but it’s a fundamental part of Nebraska’s defense.

A fundamental part of Michigan’s offense is getting to the rim. The Wolverines are averaging 24.6 free throw attempts per game in the Big Ten, which is first. Nebraska is giving up 13.9 in Big Ten games, but that’s a big gap.

Will Michigan attempt closer to 24 free throws or 13? Considering that Michigan shoots 73 percent from the line, 10 extra free-throw attempts would equate to an average of seven points.

That could be the entire ballgame, if all else is equal.

So, to recap, the Huskers need to hit 3-pointers, keep the 2-point battle even, and keep the Wolverines off the free-throw line. Do that, and the Huskers will leave Ann Arbor 21-0.

Prediction: Michigan 79, Nebraska 72 

Without Braden Frager, I’m not sure Nebraska has enough 3-point shooting to beat the Wolverines. He’s also one of the Huskers’ best defenders, rebounders, and finishers. The Huskers will battle, but Michigan’s length on defense will prove to be too difficult to overcome.

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