3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. Texas A&M

Nebraska basketball will return to the NCAA tournament for the first time in 10 years on Friday and a familiar face will await them, Texas A&M.

The Aggies are familiar for a couple of reasons. For one, they were a conference opponent for almost 15 years. Texas A&M also just hired away Trev Alberts to be their AD which makes this first-round matchup even more interesting.

Texas A&M is dynamic. The Aggies have also been on fire down the stretch just like Nebraska basketball. Each team has a chance to make some noise in this NCAA tournament or at least give Houston a really difficult game in the round of 32.

You need to survive the first round first. Nebraska has never done that and here are three keys and a prediction for the Huskers and Aggies (5:40 CST, TNT).

Live by the three

Tyrece Radford, a Texas A&M guard said that Nebraska basketball lives by the three and dies by the three. He’s not wrong. The Huskers are a better defensive team than they are given credit for. They have other offensive weapons too, but if they don’t make 3-pointers, it’s hard to see them winning on Friday night.

This is a classic 8-9 matchup. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team win. Nebraska basketball is a one-point favorite. The over/under is 148 according to DraftKings and I think there’s a good chance that hits.

Texas A&M and Florida scored over 180 in the SEC semifinals, so the Aggies can light it up. Wade Taylor made six 3-pointers in that game. That means it won’t be easy to outscore Texas A&M at the 3-point line but the Huskers probably need to do that to win.

Even if Nebraska is outscored on 3-pointers, I’d say they need to make about 10 to win the game. Keisei Tominaga is going to have to have a day, and the Huskers average 9.5.

The Aggies’ 3-point defense is poor (339th in makes allowed, 203rd in percentage). It’s been better in conference play but they give up a lot of good looks — it’s up to the Huskers to knock them down.

Clean up the glass

Texas A&M is the top offensive-rebounding team in college basketball with 17 per game. Yet, Nebraska is ranked 15th in defensive rebounding, so it’s strength against strength.

The Huskers have struggled at times with allowing offensive rebounds. The games against Rutgers and Illinois come to mind. Texas A&M shoots a lot of shots at the rim and from the 3-point line. They also get lots of offensive rebounds, which covers up for some inefficiency.

Nebraska has to manage turnovers and play good defense at the rim without fouling, which it couldn’t do against Illinois. But if the Huskers allow A&M to grab a bunch of offensive rebounds, it could be a death knell.

Avoid turnovers

People talk about limiting turnovers in football, but it’s just as important in basketball. Texas A&M doesn’t do a lot of things well on defense, but it does force 11.4 turnovers per game.

It would be nice for Keisei Tominaga to get going and that’s probably going to be needed. Wade Taylor is probably going to have a good night against a Nebraska defense that could struggle against a ball-screen heavy offense (think Michigan/Dug McDaniel).

Whatever the gameplan, you want Taylor shooting jump shots as opposed to attacking the rim. He feels like a guy who could go off for 30-40. Nebraska doesn’t need that, not even from Tominaga. The Huskers just need to run their offense, trust each other, and get good shots.

Tominaga will play well. That’s a minor prediction but it’s going to take more than that on both ends of the floor to beat the Aggies. Limiting turnovers is one of those things and if that happens, Nebraska shoots the ball so well that it should find the kind of groove needed to win.

Prediction

Fred Hoiberg’s team seems ready to make history. Keisei Tominaga is poised for his “March moment” along with a bunch of others. CJ Wilcher will be back and I see the Huskers making enough treys and getting enough rebounds to advance.

Nebraska 79,  Texas A&M 72

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