3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball at Rutgers

After nearly a week off following back-to-back games against top-10 teams, the Nebraska basketball team hits the road for a must-win game, at least if the Huskers want to keep their Big Ten title hopes alive.

There is no margin for error at this point. Michigan is 11-1. Illinois has the same record, and Nebraska is alone in third at 9-2, with the chance to pull within a game with a 10th conference win on Saturday.

Rutgers is 9-14 overall. The Scarlet Knights are 2-10 in the Big Ten. Rutgers is 158th in the Kenpom. Nebraska is 12th. The Huskers are a 12.5-point favorite and should be close to 100 percent.

Rienk Mast detailed how sick he was last week. Braden Frager should also be healthy after looking a little hobbled against Illinois, despite scoring 20 off the bench.

The Scarlet Knights don’t have much to go on. They are a young team with only one player averaging double figures during Big Ten games: Tariq Franics. He’s scoring 18 per game. Harun Zrno is making two 3-pointers per game during conference play with a 37.5 shooting percentage. Kaden Powers is another 3-point shooter to watch.

Rutgers has one player in the rotation taller than 6-foot-7. Center Emmanuel Ogbole is a quality shot blocker (1.3 per game) and is also grabbing three offensive rebounds per game.

Even though it feels like a mismatch, there are no easy road wins in the Big Ten. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Get Rienk Mast going

The Huskers might not need Mast to get going to beat the Scarlet Knights, however, the Huskers can’t shoot 42 percent on 2-point attempts and expect to win many games in the Big Ten.

Rutgers allows 55.3 percent on 2-point percentage (15th). They are the worst total rebounding team in the conference, so the Huskers should be able to bully the Scarlet Knights inside.

Mast was struggling before the illness. This would be a great game to get him going. At the very least, the Huskers need to be closer to their 60 percent season average on 2-point attempts than the 42 they shot against Illinois.

Shoot well from 3

Rutgers is allowing 40.5 percent on 3-point attempts in conference play (16th) and 9.8 3-point field goals per game (17th). Nebraska makes more treys per game than any team in the Big Ten (12) and is shooting 38.6 percent, which also leads the Big Ten, in conference games.

Based on those numbers, the Huskers should have a big 3-point edge.

Stay gritty

This team has been winning games due to its gritty defense. The Huskers lost that in the second half against Illinois, although that is the best offense in college hoops, according to Kenpom.

Nebraska basketball has the No. 11 adjusted defense in college basketball. Rutgers has the 146th-best office. It needs to play out that way.

Prediction: Nebraska 82, Rutgers 63

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