3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Troy in NCAA tournament

For the ninth time in the history of the Nebraska basketball program, the Huskers have earned a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Nebraska earned a No. 4 seed as an at-large team and will open the NCAA tournament Thursday in Oklahoma City at 11:40 CST against Troy, a 22-win team out of the Sun Belt.

The Huskers are heavy favorites (-13.5). They are expected to win their first-ever NCAA Tournament game. Rienk Mast, a senior, told NBC News, “We need to get it done.”

Players and coaches understand the monkey on the back of the program. They have all lived it, and if they were able to beat Troy, this 2025-26 Nebraska basketball team would go down as the best team in program history, without a shadow of a doubt.

The Huskers have tied the school record for wins. They took second in the Big Ten. Now, it’s time to make a run in March. First things first, is taking care of business against Troy, which won’t be easy.

Getting to know Troy

The Trojans are the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament champions. They are also back in the big dance for the second year in a row.

6-foot-8 forward Thomas Dowd, an all-conference player in the Sun Belt, leads off the scouting report. He scores 14.1 points per game, leads the Sun Belt with 10.1 rebounds per game, and also makes two 3-pointers per game, shooting 34 percent.

Victor Valdes, a 6-foot-7 forward, is another name to know. He was another all-conference selection. He serves almost as a point forward, leading the team with 4.6 assists per game. He also averages 14.8 points, shoots 49.6 percent on twos, and averages 1.4 steals per game.

6-foot-2 guard Cooper Campbell also averages 4.2 assists, 1.6 steals, 12.7 points, and shoots 38 percent from 3-point range. Cobi Campbell, another guard, shoots 40 percent from deep. Both Campbells average more than 2 3-point field goals per game.

Fred Hoiberg stressed how good Troy was during his press conference this week, and the Nebraska basketball team better be ready. The Trojans are a good 3-point shooting team (volume, not percentage), they force turnovers, and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.

Those are many of the things people look for in a bracket-busting team, and with that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction for Thursday’s game in Oklahoma City (Tru TV).

Start fast

In the Big Ten tournament, it was 13-3 Purdue in the blink of an eye. That’s happened a few times over the past month, but it can’t happen on Thursday.

This team probably has the most pressure of any college basketball program playing in the first round of the NCAA tournament. For Nebraska basketball fans, it might as well be the national title game. That’s how important it is.

Those players are going to feel it. I guarantee they already are. A slow start would only add to the pressure. Would only cause them to tighten up further.

In the past 12 games, Nebraska is 6-6. Troy will be looking for reasons to believe they can win. They have been on this stage before, more recently than Nebraska, and the first 4-8 minutes will be critical.

The Huskers can’t afford a slow start. It’s fine if the two teams are feeling each other out, but Nebraska basketball can’t spot the Trojans a big lead early.

Instead, it would be great to see them feed off the fan energy and rip off a strong start as we saw routinely earlier in the season when the Huskers opened 20-0.

Win the possession battle

Often, when Nebraska has lost this season, it has allowed too many offensive rebounds and turned the ball over too much.

Those are both concerns against Troy. The Trojans are 92nd in turnovers forced per game (12.7). Nebraska started the season strong in that category, but averaged 9,2 giveaways per game in the Big Ten, which was 10th out of 18 teams.

Troy also averages over 11 giveaways per game. Nebraska basketball forces 13 turnovers per game. So it can be a strength or weakness for both teams.

The bigger issue might be rebounding. Nebraska allows 10 offensive boards per game. Troy brings down 12.4.

Simply put, if the Huskers turn the ball over more than 10 times and allow more than 10 offensive rebounds, there could be trouble for the Big Red.

Huskers need to hit some 3s

Fred Hoiberg’s teams tend to live and die by the 3-point shot. That hasn’t always been the case with Nebraska this season, but in the biggest wins, Nebraska usually shot the ball well from deep.

Troy is 47th in college basketball in 3-point defense, allowing just 31.3 percent to opponents. Nebraska quietly has dropped to 105th in 3-point percentage at 35.3%.

It felt like that number was closer to 38 earlier this season. 3-point shooting has been an issue; at least the consistency hasn’t been there.

On Thursday, it needs to be. It’s hard to see Nebraska moving on if the Huskers don’t shoot the three well.

Prediction: Nebraska 81, Troy 71. 

There are some stressful moments, but Nebraska’s size and 3-point shooting will make the difference. Getting outside of the Big Ten will be invigorating for the Big Red as Fred Hoiberg’s squad makes history.