3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Northwestern

Nebraska basketball seeks consecutive win No. 22 on Saturday in the Vault against a Northwestern team that’s winless in Big Ten play.

The Wildcats are 8-9 overall. They have some decent numbers on offense in the sense that they don’t turn the ball over. Northwestern has a strong assist rate, too.

However, Northwestern doesn’t shoot 3-pointers well. They are 308th in makes (6.4 per game), 290th in attempts, and 301st in percent (31.3). That bodes well for a Nebraska team that wants to force teams to shoot from beyond the arc, while also forcing them to shoot a poor percentage.

Nebraska has forced those attempts, gotten rebounds, and gone to the other end. The Huskers foul at the sixth-fewest rate in college hoops (13.8 per game), but Northwestern isn’t good at drawing fouls.

Nick Martinelli is the one player on the scouting report to know. The 6-foot-7 guard is shooting 57 percent from the field, 52 percent from 3-point range and 79 percent from the free-throw line. He’s leading the Big Ten in scoring.

With all that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction.

Keep Martinelli from going off

The All-Big Ten wing has had three games with 30 points or more this season. It will take that kind of effort to keep the Wildcats in the hunt for a win at Pinnacle Bank Arena.  Martinelli doesn’t create as much for others as you would expect, so he’s not a triple-double threat.

Martinelli is a threat to go off for 35 points. Nebraska can’t allow that to happen, or Northwestern could find a way to hang around.

Don’t have an off night

Nebraska basketball is ranked 15th in 3-point field goals (10.9 makes per game) and is 13th in attempts (31.3). The Huskers are always going to live and die by the 3-pointer, at least in some ways. Nebraska has been stellar at scoring the ball inside. Rienk Mast has helped with that. Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager have, too.

Yet, the one concerning thing about Northwestern is that they are stellar at 3-point defense, holding opponents to just 29.5 percent (35th). If the Wildcats can get their stellar 3-point defense, they might have a shot.

Beat Northwestern at its own game

The Wildcats want to take care of the floor, shoot well, and limit fouls. That’s what every team wants to do. The difference is that Nebraska is an elite shooting team. The Huskers are an elite defensive team; they don’t foul, don’t give up turnovers, and are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in college.

Some of those are exactly the formula of Northwestern. Nebraska basketball is just better at it, and if they can keep doing what they have been doing, the Huskers should improve to 18-0. Tip-off is at 3 PM CST.

Prediction: Nebraska 85, Northwestern 71

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