Nebraska football vs. Minnesota: 3 keys to a Huskers win

Nebraska football vs. Minnesota is now one day away and here are three keys for the Huskers coming away with a win.

It’s hard to believe but after the long wait, we are one day away from the return of Nebraska football. Not the Huskers returning to practice, or a spring game, or anything like that.

Real. Actual. Football.

Nebraska football travels to Minnesota on Thursday night for a nationally televised game. The Golden Gophers are a 7.5-point favorite right now and here are three keys for the Huskers if they want to leave Week 1 with a win.

Take care of the ball

Turnovers are the most important statistical indicator of winning and losing. Nebraska hasn’t had a positive turnover differential in years and never averaged less than 1.5 giveaways per game in the Frost era.

Minnesota has been the exact opposite of Nebraska. They force takeaways consistently and last season, the Gophers only turned it over an average of once per game, which has been the same over the past three seasons.

In the past four years, Minnesota has averaged 1.05 turnovers per game. Nebraska football has averaged 1.77 turnovers per game. That 0.72 turnovers per game is a massive difference.

If Minnesota has an advantage in the turnover battle, it will win the game. Nebraska has to be even or ahead in turnover margin and if the Huskers give it away more than once, it could doom their chances.

The money down

Minnesota was really good on third downs last season. The Gophers converted 52 percent of their attempts on offense while limiting opponents to 27 percent. Minnesota actually led the Big Ten in third-down defense and was among the top five nationally.

Winning on third down and taking care of the ball is a solid combination. It’s a big reason why Minnesota has won 29 games in its last three full seasons.

Simply put, Nebraska can’t convert 25 percent of its third downs and allow Minnesota to convert around 50. That’s a recipe for disaster. The Gophers love to control the ball and the clock. I don’t see their style changing much.

Yes, Minnesota has a new quarterback and one that’s pretty talented in Athan Kaliakmanis. But running back Sean Tyler will be the focal point of the offense and if he has a good day, the Gophers will likely have a bunch of third-and-shorts, which is where they thrive.

Nebraska can’t allow that. So it has to win on the early downs. It also has to find a way to convert some third downs, which is where Jeff Sims comes in.

Jeff Sims needs to have a great night

I’m not saying Jeff Sims needs to throw for 300 yards or anything. But he needs to avoid turnovers, pick up some first downs with his legs, and just be efficient. I feel like 24 points will win this game.

Minnesota might have some knowledge of the 3-3-5 defense after playing Syracuse in the bowl game, but Tony While will have some wrinkles. The personnel is also better. At least it should be and I think the Huskers defense is pretty solid.

I have a hard time seeing Minnesota score 30 for instance. This feels like a fairly low-scoring game. Both teams want to run the ball, and control the clock, but allow their quarterbacks opportunities to create explosive plays.

Minnesota has been great at that under Fleck. We have no idea what Nebraska is going to look like, but Sims is going to have to create some explosive plays with his arm and legs.

There’s been tons of hype surrounding the Huskers’ new starting quarterback and if they are going to notch an upset win, Sims will play a huge role in making that happen.

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