3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Oregon

Nebraska basketball is seeking its 21st consecutive win and a 17-0 start tonight against the Oregon Ducks (8 PM CST, BTN).

You can pinch yourself, but yes, that statement is real. Fred Hoiberg’s Nebraska basketball team is ranked No. 8 and tied for first in the Big Ten with a 5-0 record.

After rallying from 16 down to beat Indiana on Saturday, Nebraska returns to the Vault to take on an Oregon team that’s talented but struggling. The Ducks are 8-8 overall. They are 1-4 in the Big Ten. Yet, the Ducks roster has five players once ranked in the top 51 of their recruiting class. They have four five-stars (ranked in the top 32).

7-footer Nathan Bittle leads the way, scoring 16.8 points and grabbing seven rebounds for the Ducks. He’s shooting 46 percent from the field, including 36 percent from 3-point range. Jackson Shelstad is a high-volume shooter who makes 2.8 triples per game but shoots 31.4 percent (39.1 percent overall). Ty Simpkins is another sharpshooter. He makes 2.2 treys per game at a 39-percent rate. Kwame Evans, a 6-foot-9 forward, is another who can stretch the floor.

Dana Altman was the Creighton head coach at one time, and you can see that in this roster. The Ducks average 9.1 3-point field goals per game (91st). They are 88th in attempts but 196th in percentage (33.9).

On paper, Oregon might be the more talented team. It’s not all about talent, though. Nebraska basketball is a great example of that, although the Huskers shouldn’t be sold short. They are basketball players and really good ones. Braden Frager is a freak athlete. The rest of the team are just basketball players, pure and simple, although their athleticism is underrated.

The Huskers are a 10.5-point favorite tonight. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Play Nebraska basketball

The formula for Nebraska has been very simple: play solid defense without fouling, take care of the ball, shoot well, and rebound.

It’s basic, but it wins basketball games. One thing that doesn’t get talked about enough is how well Sam Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence, the entire team, really, have valued the ball. Nebraska is turning is over nine times per game, which is 15th-best in college basketball.

The Huskers also have the seventh-fewest fouls in college basketball. If you don’t give the ball away and put your opponent on the free-throw line, it’s much easier to win games, regardless of how much talent you have.

As long as Nebraska does that, it should be fine, although a really cold shooting effort can always hinder the Huskers.

Handle success

A big part of this game has nothing to do with Oregon. Nebraska basketball has done a great job of handling success all season. Yet, they had just two days off after a massive win, which was an emotional high.

Now, they are playing a talented but underachieving team. Nebraska is a heavy favorite, too. The Vault will be rocking, which should help their energy. But you have to worry a little about a letdown, especially because there have been a few rocky starts at home this season, against teams not nearly as good as the Ducks.

Don’t let Oregon get hot

The one way the Ducks can win this game is if their shooters catch fire. It’s a distinct possibility because Nebraska allows more 3-point attempts than just about any team in college basketball (361st).

Nebraska has done a much better job of contesting shots, rebounding, and closing out, so it has limited teams to just 30.7 percent from 3-point range (77th). If that holds up, Nebraska will win this game.

Prediction

The Ducks might keep this closer than expected. They have some talented shooters, but Nebraska is nearly impossible to beat at home, and the Huskers are playing too well right now.

Nebraska 78, Oregon 72.

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