3 thoughts on Nebraska’s March Madness opponent: Troy Trojans could be trouble

After a rough close to the season, losing six of the last 12 games, Nebraska basketball fell to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Most projections had the Huskers as a three seed. But they were trending down. Purdue started trending up, and Nebraska is seeded fourth. It’s still a great place to be.

They are favored, in terms of seeding, to reach the Sweet 16. However, the Huskers aren’t guaranteed to reach the second round of the NCAA tournament, in part because the program has never done that.

This will be the first time since 1991 that Nebraska basketball is a top-four seed, and only the second time in program history.

The opponent for Nebraska will be 13th-seeded Troy, champions of the Sun Belt in the regular season and the tournament. This is their second straight appearance after losing to Kentucky, 76-57 in the first round last season.

Nebraska is a 13.5-point favorite for the first-round game, which will tip at 11:40 CST on Thursday. Troy is 22-11, and here are three thoughts on the Trojans and why the matchup could be trouble.

Watch out for Thomas Dowd

The 6-foot-8 junior averages 14.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds, which led the Sun Belt Conference. He averages 3.1 offensive rebounds per game and shoots 33 percent from beyond the arc on 5.7 attempts per game, making an average of two per game.

One player going off is often a recipe for upsets. Dowd has that capability. It will be interesting to see who Fred Hoiberg uses to guard him. How can he get to the foul line, and also averages over two assists per game.

It’s going to take an extraordinary performance from someone on the Troy roster to upset Nebraska or a barrage of 3s. Dowd is an ideal candidate. He shoots 56 percent on twos, but a Big Ten defense is different.

Berke might be the best candidate to guard him during the game. His length should be an issue, and it could prevent Dowd from having a big game, which will be needed for Troy to win.

A high 3-point volume

Nebraska’s defense is geared toward protecting the rim. That should be a positive thing in this matchup. Troy, much like USC, gets to the free-throw line a lot, shooting 21 free throws per game.

They won’t have the same athletic advantages, though, against a Big Ten team, so it will be harder to draw fouls, especially with the way Nebraska helps aggressively.

However, the Trojans make 9.3 3-pointers per game, which is 72nd in college basketball, even though their percentage is just 33.5 (206th).

Cooper Campbell shoots 38.6 percent. Cobi Campbell shoots 40.4 percent. They each average more than two 3-point makes per game, just like Dowd.

Those players will get attempts against Nebraska. Probably more than they usually do. It will simply be a matter of contesting shots to force enough misses, then getting enough offensive rebounds to reduce second-chance points, another potential X-factor in this game.

Nebraska could live or die by the three

If there is one major weakness for Troy, it’s around the basket on defense. The Trojans are 47th overall in 3-point percentage defense. Yet, they are 164th in defensive 2-point percentage and 171st in blocks per game. Rienk Mast, Braden Frager, Pryce Sandfort, and even Sam Hoiberg need to attack the basket.

The bigs need to finish. The guards need to get their feet in the paint to create quality 3-point looks off the catch.

One thing Nebraska can’t do is force 3-point attempts. Let them come within the rhythm of the offense. When they do, the number of attempts doesn’t matter, because a good shot is a good shot.

When you force threes off the dribble, or without making the extra pass, that’s when you get in trouble, and it’s been an issue recently with the Huskers.

3-point shooting is a strength. It can also be a weakness, and Nebraska can’t let it be a weakness if it wants to advance in the NCAA tournament for the first time ever.

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