3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska’s top-10 showdown vs. Illinois

After dropping a nail-biter to third-ranked Michigan earlier this week, on the road, without Rienk Mast and Braden Frager in the lineup, Nebraska basketball welcomes Illinois to the Vault on Sunday in another critical matchup for both teams.

Jamarques Lawrence buried the game-winner for Nebraska in the 83-80 win in Champaign. That’s the Fighting Illini’s only loss in Big Ten play. Michigan leads the Big Ten at 10-1. The winner of this game will be tied for first with them.

While, we haven’t heard the status of Frager and Mast, there are some encouraging signs. Frager was spotted this weekend watching high school basketball, and wasn’t wearing a boot.

Mast was out due to illness. It has been five days, so hopefully things have cleared up enough for him to play. He was a game-time decision on Tuesday. Frager and Mast are both game-time decisions, but keep your fingers crossed.

Illinois is ranked sixth via the Kenpom rankings with the No. 1 adjusted offense in college basketball. Nebraska is 12th, with the No. 11 defense and the 22nd-best offense.

Point guard Kylan Boswell is out for the season. Yet, in his absence, freshman guard Keaton Wagler, a 6-foot-6 freshman from Kansas, is scoring 21.4 points per game during conference play. In those 10 games, he’s shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 47.1 percent on 3-pointers with an average of 3.2 makes per game.

Andrej Stojakovic (13.6 ppg) and David Mirkovic (12.5 ppg) are also scoring in double digits in Big Ten play. The Fighting Illini have won 10 straight games since the loss to Nebraska basketball. Brad Underwood’s team is elite, and here are three keys and a prediction.

Win the 3-point battle

Illinois is second in the Big Ten in 3-point field goals per game during conference play (11.6). They are second in 3-point percentage (36.5), and first in attempts (31.8). Underwood’s teams have always attempted a ton of 3-pointers. Wagler is shooting it from deep as well as anyone, including Pryce Sandfort.

Yet, the team that leads the Big Ten in 3-pointers per game (11.8) and 3-point percentage (38.1) is Nebraska. These are the two best 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are also the highest-volume.

Both teams give up a bunch of 3-pointers, too. Nebraska allows 7.9 per game (1oth in Big Ten), but teams are shooting just 30.4 percent (4th). Illinois is 12th in the league in treys allowed per game (8.8) but is 8th in 3-point percentage defense (31.8).

In the first meeting, Nebraska made 12 triples, and Illinois made 10. The Huskers shot 46 percent from deep. Illinois finished at 34. That was the difference in the game.

For Nebraska basketball to win, taking the 3-point battle is a must.

Fight to a draw on the boards

The Fighting Illini aren’t just lethal at the 3-point line; they are also the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten with 11.1 per game. Illinois rebounded 33 percent of its misses in the first meeting. Nebraska basketball had an offensive rebounding rate of 27 percent.

The Huskers are 5th in the Big Ten in defensive rebounds per game, but ninth in total rebounds. Opponents are getting just 7.5 per game on the offensive glass, which is third in the conference, but the Huskers need to hold up against the Illini.

Letting Illinois rebound 1/3 or more of its misses could spell trouble. Anything under 30 percent is a win.

Keep Illinois off the line

Nebraska basketball has been good at making teams earn their points. The Huskers don’t foul. They don’t turn it over, and they don’t give up many free throws, just 14.8 (3rd) per game in the Big Ten.

Nebraska surrendered 24 free throws to Michigan. Illinois got 20 in the first meeting. Nebraska was charged with 21 fouls. The Huskers average 14. Playing good defense without fouling will be critical.

Michigan made 18 free throws. Nebraska usually gives up an average of 10.4. That made a big difference on Tuesday, and it could make a big difference on Sunday, too.

Prediction

I’m guessing that Frager and Mast will be back in the lineup. Defense is the key. Illinois is an incredible offensive team. Yet, the Huskers have been dominant at home and led the No. 1 team in the KenPom (Michigan) for most of the game, in its gym, without two of their top six players.

The defense has been elite. It will keep Illinois under 80 points. The Huskers will shoot the lights out, as they usually do at home, and they will find a way for the season sweep.

Nebraska 80, Illinois 76. 

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