3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska’s must-win game against Penn State

The term must-win game is overused in sports. However, it’s not hyperbole to say that Nebraska basketball has a must-win game against Penn State on Saturday.

After a 20-0 start, Nebraska has lost four of its past six games. Those were each against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET rankings, so even though the projected seed has dropped, the resume is still solid.

Nebraska hasn’t gotten a quality win in a while. This won’t count as that. But it would help Nebraska in its push to get a top-four seed for the Big Ten tournament and the triple bye. Penn State is 11-16. They are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and even though their record is similar to Northwestern, the Nittany Lions are ranked much lower in the Kenpom (155th).

It feels like if Nebraska loses this game or the one to Maryland, the Huskers could find themselves dropping into the No. 5 range for a seed, which isn’t where you want to be.

So, with that in mind, here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska vs. Penn State (1 PM CST, BTN).

Nebraska basketball must get back to basics

This means taking care of the basketball. In the past three games, Nebraska basketball has turned the ball over on 19.3 percent of its possessions. It’s hard to win games when you turn the ball over on 1/5 of the possessions.

It makes it even more difficult when you are allowing opposing teams to rebound above 30 percent of their missed shots. Nebraska allowed Purdue to rebound 40 percent of its misses, almost half, while turning it over 17 percent of the time.

That’s a recipe for disaster. It was the same story against Iowa. 19 percent turnovers and a 35 percent offensive rebounding rate allowed. Those numbers should be below 10 and below 30.

That’s where they were when the Huskers were winning. Penn State forces 12.4 turnovers per game, which ranks 44th, so it won’t be easy, but Nebraska has to be elite at valuing the ball.

Attack the rim

Penn State has one of the worst 2-point defenses in college basketball. The Nittany Lions are allowing teams to shoot 58.3 percent (362nd). They are 358th in blocked shots per game. Penn State has basically no rim protection.

Nebraska has struggled with the 2-point offense recently. It was better against Iowa, and this should be a game where Rienk Mast, Braden Frager, and Pryce Sandfort get back on track, as long as they are aggressive in trying to get to the rim.

The closer your average a 2-point shot is, the better the 2-point percentage tends to be.

Shoot well

Nebraska shot 20.8 percent against Iowa from 3-point range. Fred Hoiberg’s team just isn’t going to win very often shooting the ball like that.

Against an atrocious Penn State defense, one that’s allowing Big Ten teams to shoot 41.2 percent from 3-point range, by far the worst in the Big Ten, the Huskers need to get going.

If they hit double-digit 3s, Nebraska basketball will cover the spread (-18.5). If not, it could be similar to the Northwestern game, especially if Nebraska struggles with Penn State’s pressure.

Prediction: Nebraska 82, Penn State 61. 

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