3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. Wisconsin

After a 9-0 start and being ranked for the first time in a decade, Nebraska basketball will open Big Ten play on Wednesday night against Wisconsin.

The Badgers are ranked higher than Nebraska in the KenPom rankings — 26th compared to 42nd for Nebraska. The Badgers are 7-2 and 1-0 in Big Ten play. John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are each scoring 20 points per game for the Badgers, who also have 6-foot-11 Nolan Winter and 6-foot-10 Austin Rapp scoring in double figures.

Going by the numbers, Nebraska and Wisconsin are very similar. They shoot the hell out of the ball from 3-point range. Wisconsin averages 11.6 3-pointers per game (16th in college basketball), while Nebraska averages 11.1 (19th). They each rank the top 15 in 3-point attempts.

One difference is that Nebraska allows teams to shoot 10 more 3-pointers than Wisconsin. The Huskers allow a lower 3-point percentage (30.2, 87th); Wisconsin allows eight per game, but teams shoot 35.1 percent against the Badgers (286th).

Wisconsin has the 25th-best adjusted offense according to KenPom. Nebraska has the 37th-best adjusted defense. It feels like that’s where the game will be decided.

Here are three keys and a prediction (Huskers are a 1.5-point favorite). Tip-off is 8 PM CST on the Big Ten Network.

Make the 3-point shot low percentage

Nebraska basketball allows a lot of 3-point attempts. That’s part of their defensive strategy. They collapse around the rim and allow more perimeter shots. It burned them last season, but in 2025-26, the Huskers are only allowing teams 30.8 percent from deep.

The 2-point defense has been solid, too. Nebraska allows just 46 percent on 2s (62nd) and is 30th in allowing the fewest 2-point attempts. So Wisconsin will shoot a bunch of 3-pointers tonight. The key is holding them closer to 30 percent than 35.

Keep Wisconsin off the glass

Nebraska basketball fans know that the Badgers tend to do two things really well: Shoot and rebound. Wisconsin isn’t as elite as it usually is in rebounding, but it averages four more offensive rebounds than its opponent. Nebraska isn’t a great offensive rebounding team. The Huskers are also 219th in the country in terms of allowing offensive rebounds (11.1). One way the Badgers tend to kill teams is with offensive rebounds that lead to kick-out 3-pointers.

Nebraska does average 38.6 rebounds total, which is 119th overall, just about 10 spots behind Wisconsin. Yet, the Badgers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and limiting those opportunities will be huge.

Control the paint

This Wisconsin team is good. But they aren’t dominant in the paint. The 2-point defense ranks 143rd. Nebraska’s 2-point offense is ranked 16th (61.3 percent). Nebraska has six players shooting 56 percent or better on 2-point attempts, which includes guards Sam Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence. Rienk Mast has been incredible this season and is shooting 61 percent on 2-point attempts.

Not only is Wisconsin 143rd in 2-point defense, but it also ranks 147th in blocks. Wisconsin doesn’t have an elite interior defense, and Nebraska needs to take advantage, Mast specifically.

So win points in the paint, don’t let Wisconsin go crazy from deep, or on the offensive glass, and the Huskers should improve to 10-0.

Nebraska (-1.5) vs Wisconsin Prediction

These two teams are so even, if this game were in Madison, I would give Wisconsin the edge. It’s in the Vault, though. Rienk Mast will be the best player on the floor, starting to seriously make his case for All-Big Ten, and Nebraska will keep up with Wisconsin on the three balls in an 79-74 win that will be due to the Huskers playing better defense.

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