3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. Michigan State

Nebraska basketball rides a three-game winning streak into Big Ten play which opens on Saturday against Michigan State on the road (11 AM CST, BTN).

It’s the first of two Big Ten games this December for the Huskers. Then, a two-game break before the final 18 conference games.

Michigan State, like Nebraska, is unranked. But the Spartans aren’t far out of the top 25, especially after a recent 94-91 win over 12th-ranked North Carolina. MSU (7-2) also opened conference play with a win over Minnesota.

Tom Izzo’s teams are always tough to beat at home and always talented. Michigan State has nine top-100 prospects on its roster, plus Nebraska native Frankie Fidler who is scoring 10.6 points per game.

The Spartans only have two players averaging in double figures — Jaden Adkins is the other — but Michigan is still averaging 1.18 points per possession and has the No. 40 adjusted offense according to Kenpom. The Spartans have the No. 28 defense, two spots behind Nebraska basketball (No. 26).

Nebraska is 44th. Michigan State is 32nd in the Kenpom rankings. The Spartans are a 6.5-point favorite and here are three keys for the Huskers, plus a prediction.

Stay hot from deep

Against Creighton, Nebraska basketball only made four 3-pointers. So they can beat a top-25 team without hitting a bunch of 3-pointers.

However, I have a hard time seeing Nebraska shoot like 25 percent from beyond the arc and expect to win. Not in the Breslin Center. The Spartans aren’t the kind of team that will settle for 3-pointers all day.

Nebrsaka’s defense will be tested inside and out. The defense is better though and it’s why this team has only one loss.

Michigan State ranks 197th in 3-point field goals allowed per game and 155th in 3-point percentage defense (31.5). The Huskers are the underdog and to flip the script, they’ll need to stay hot from deep after averaging 12 3-point makes in their last two wins (12 from Connor Essegian).

Transition defense

Michigan State is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. There are 364 D-1 teams and the Spartans are 357th in 3-point percentage (25.7).

That’s kind of baffling. Only two Spartans — Adkins and Tre Holloman — average one 3-point make per game. However, one thing that helps a poor shooting team is getting good looks.

The Spartans have always done a stellar job of getting 3-point looks in transition. Whether it’s 3-point shots or MSU attacking the basket, Michigan State is at its best when the Spartans are getting stops and getting out in transition.

Hopefully, Nebraska can limit those opportunities, but when they come up, the Huskers’ transition defense has to be on point.

Nebraska basketball defense has to travel

The Huskers are allowing teams to shoot just 38.9 percent from the field and just 46.1 percent on 2-point attempts. They rank in the top 100 in each category and are allowing just 0.93 points per possession.

Rollie Worster has been an upgrade at point guard, while Braxton Meah and Berke Buyuktuncel have upgraded the interior defense.

Nebraska is allowing fewer assists (1.1 per game) than last season and all those things add up. Big Ten play will be the real test of how the defense stacks up and much like Creighton, if Nebraska is going to win this game, it will have to be in part because of great defense.

Prediction: Michigan State 73, Nebraska 67 

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