3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. Boise State in College Basketball Crown

After two double-digit wins, Nebraska basketball is one victory from a 20-win season and a berth in the championship game of the College Basketball Crown.

Standing in the way of the Huskers will be Boise State. The Broncos are an accomplished program — more than Nebraska and have 26 wins. The Broncos have made the NCAA tournament in each of the past three seasons prior to this one.

Boise State is also ranked 47th in the Kenpom rankings. That’s the best of any team in the field, although Nebraska basketball isn’t far behind at 49th. The winner will play either Villanova or UCF on Sunday — two teams ranked in the top 66, according to Kenpom.

There should be some quality basketball, and in the perfect table setter for the Final Four, here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska vs. Boise State on Saturday (12:30 CST, Fox).

Defense and rebounding

Boise State is a really good offensive team. The Broncs have the 39th-best adjusted offense according to KenPom. Nebraska basketball has the No. 41 adjusted defense, so whichever wins that matchup will probably win the game.

Both teams are good at defensive rebounding. Boise State only allows seven offensive rebounds per game, compared to 10.3 for Nebraska. Being solid on defense will be key, especially against 2-point shots — that’s where Boise State is really effective, shooting 57.3 percent (20th in college basketball).

Neither team is great at taking care of the ball. The Huskers are better at forcing turnovers, but defense and rebounding will be a huge key. Tyson Degenhart averages 18.1 points for the Broncos.

The 6-foot-7 forward has scored 40 in the first two games of the Crown. He’s one of four players in the starting lineup at 6-foot-7 or taller but Boise State only has one who is taller than 6-foot-8 and he doesn’t play full-time. The Broncos also have four players who average at least one 3-point field goal per game.

The Broncos made 70 percent of their 2-point field goals on Thursday, and if Saturday is anything close to that, Nebraska will be headed home early.

Nebraska needs to stay gritty

This starts with Mr. Gritty himself, Cale Jacobsen. The former walk-on has scored nine points in two games, along with nine assists, eight rebounds, and six assists. He only has one turnover, and for the season, his defensive rating for the season is 0.99.

Whether it’s playing good defense, making the right pass, or just securing the rebound, Jacobsen set the tone for the Huskers in their comeback. He did the same as a starter on Wednesday.

With only seven or eight available players, Jacobsen will need to keep playing the way that he has. We could see more Braxton Meah in this game, and the bench will need to be productive like it was against Georgetown, which goes beyond Jacobsen.

It feels like Nebraska will need another solid outing from Jacobsen to win, because defense has been a focal point and his presence has made an impact on that end of the floor. The Huskers limited Georgetown and Arizona State to 1.0 points per possession or fewer and they need to to emulate that.

Brice Williams and Juwan Gary have to keep lighting it up

Nebraska basketball might not be playing if it wasn’t for Jacobsen, but the Huskers definitely wouldn’t be without Brice Williams and Juwan Gary.

They were a driving force behind wanting to play in this tournament, and they have shown up. Williams scored 30 in the first game and followed it up with 28. Gary has quietly scored 35 points in two games.

It sounds simple, but to win in the postseason, your best players need to show up. So far, they have for the Huskers, but Gary/Williams need to combine for at least 40 points if Nebraska is going to win.

Prediction: Nebraska 77, Boise State 71

This is a big-time matchup for Nebraska basketball. These are two of the best teams not in the NCAA tournament. Boise State has the better offense on paper, but if Williams can stay hot, Nebraska’s defense can get enough stops to win.

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