3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball at Ohio State

Nebraska basketball has a quad-1 opportunity tonight at Ohio State and here are the keys, and a prediciton.

The excitement surrounding the Nebraska basketball team is palpable as the Huskers are closing in on their first NCAA tournament berth in a decade. 

Yet, you are starting to feel that this team has a higher ceiling than just making the NCAA tournament. Nebraska basketball is 39th according to Kenpom in adjusted offense and 32nd in adjusted defense.

Since the inception of the Kenpom rankings, every national champion has had a top-40 offense and a top-25 defense. The Huskers aren’t that far off. But at 20-8 and 10-7 in the Big Ten, as well as projected as an eight seed in the NCAA tournament, they are still an underdog against Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are talented and playing better under their interim head coach. They have knocked off Purdue and Michigan State in two of their last three games.

Bruce Thorton (6-2) is one of the best perimeter scorers in the Big Ten and Jamison Battle (6-7) is also dangerous as is Roddy Gayle (6-4). It should be noted that Battle’s status is up in the air. He missed Sunday’s win over Michigan State.

Nebraska basketball beat Ohio State by double digits in Lincoln back in January. But these are two very different teams. Ohio State is favored by three and tip-off is at 5:30 PM CST (FS1). Here are three keys for the Huskers as well as a prediction.

The defense has to travel

Nebraska basketball has won four games in a row by at least 15 points for the first time in over a century and they have done it by playing spectacular defense. In the past four wins, the Huskers haven’t allowed a single team to get a point-per-possession on offense. Michigan was the closest at 0.98 points per possession.

Anything under one and most of the time, you’ll win the game. Northwestern was 1.12 points per possession on the last road trip and Nebraska can’t allow that to happen.

The Buckeyes scored 1.07 points per possession in the first matchup, the difference is that Nebraska was lights out on offense, so it didn’t matter. I don’t see that happening tonight and if the Huskers are going to win, I think they have to hold Ohio State to under 1.0 points per possession.

Hit double-digit 3s

Ohio State can shoot the heck out of the ball. They are inconsistent but they made eight 3-pointers in the first game against Nebraska. The Huskers made 12.

The road team doesn’t have to outscore the Buckeyes again from the 3-point line but it wouldn’t hurt. Ohio State ranks just 48th in terms of allowing opponents to attempt 3s. They surrender fewer than 20 attempts per game.

Nebraska, on the other hand, is 26th in college basketball in terms of attempts. They also rank 68th in 3-point percentage (36.1), while Ohio State is 320th in 3-point percentage defense.

No wonder the Buckeyes don’t want to give up perimeter shots. It’s much easier said than done against Nebraska though and if the Huskers are to escape Columbus with a win, they probably have to hit around 10 triples.

Handle success

We could get more into X’s and O’s, but winning on the road takes mental toughness. I worry about the Huskers reading their press clippings too much. You have to be able to handle success and this is the kind of game that can bite you if you aren’t prepared.

Ohio State has plenty to play for. Beyond the NCAA tournament, Nebraska can clinch a double bye in the Big Ten tournament with three more wins but the margin for error is zero.

So the Huskers have to be sound tonight. They have to play good defense, avoid a bunch of turnovers and they certainly can’t look past a dangerous Ohio State team.

Ohio State is confident and will look to come out firing. If the Huskers start well and handle the success of the past two weeks, they should be just fine. The first 5-10 minutes will be huge though.

Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction

Ohio State is dangerous but it feels like Fred Hoiberg’s team has turned a corner. They are playing exceptional defense and while this will be a big test, if the Buckeyes are without Battle, I feel pretty good about Nebraska’s chances. Even if he does play, give me the Huskers: 74-68.

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