3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball against Murray State

Nebraska basketball opens its mid-season tournament Sunday in Hawaii against Murray State in the first round of the Diamondhead Classic.

Murray State is a mid-major from the Missouri Valley Conference but the Huskers can’t overlook them. The Racers are ranked 112th according to the Kenpom rankings, so they are good enough to make the game interesting, especially with their proficiency from the 3-point line (38.6 percent, 30th in college basketball).

The Racers are decent at forcing turnovers, too (12.6 per game) and have four scorers who average double-figures led by 6-foot-2 guard JaCobi Wood who is scoring 15 points per game, dishing out 5.4 assists, and knocking down 2.1 3-pointers (40 percent). He’s dangerous and so are the Racers if Nebraska basketball isn’t at the top of its game.

Here are three keys and a prediction.

Get the ball inside

Murray State doesn’t have a great defense at the rim. They are one of the worst shot-blocking teams in college basketball. Their 2-point defense is solid but a huge part of what they do is limit 3-pointers. The Racers allow just 17 per game. That’s good enough for sixth in college basketball. They also rank 20th in 3-point percentage defense (27.9).

The Racers hold teams to just seven assists per game, so essentially, they want to force tough 2s. That’s the goal of every defense but they have done well at it. Nebraska basketball needs to get the ball inside and not just with post players — the Huskers need to attack the rim.

What they don’t need to do is fall into the trap of taking difficult twos and playing one-on-one basketball.

Don’t let Murray State get hot

The scariest thing about this matchup is that Nebraska basketball allows 31.6 3-point attempts (362nd) and 10.1 3-point makes per game (357th). That means Nebraska allows more 3-point attempts than all but two teams in college basketball.

Murray State is 286th in attempts but 30th in percentage. I’d expect the number of attempts to crank up and if the Huskers allow that, and don’t defend well, it could be a recipe for an upset.

Take it seriously

Playing in Hawaii against a mid-major team could have the Huskers out of their element. The tip-off time is 8 PM CST (ESPN). It’s all a little wonky. But Nebraska needs to be able to focus and be sharp.

The Huskers are nine-point favorites. It will be interesting to see how Fred Hoiberg handles Murray starting four guards but Juwan Gary and Brice Williams are comfortable with those matchups. I actually think Williams, Gary, Essegian, Rollie Worster, and one big is the best lineup anyway.

You are what you can guard and since Williams/Gary can realistically guard 2-4, the Huskers should be comfortable playing small ball and still taking advantage inside.

As long as they aren’t ice-cold shooting the ball or Murray State red hot, this should be a win.

Prediction: Nebraska 80, Murray State 68

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