3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska against Iowa in the Sweet 16

The wait for Nebraska vs. Iowa is almost over.

It’s probably hard for both rivals to believe that the only thing they need to do to advance to the Elite 8 is beat each other.

Either would have gladly taken that scenario at the start of the season. Last year, they were battling to make the Big Ten Tournament.

Now, they are one win away from playing for a berth in the Final Four. It’s the first Sweet 16 trip for Iowa since 1999. For the Nebraska basketball program, it’s the first Sweet 16 ever, just one week after the first NCAA Tournament win ever.

During the regular season, Iowa beat Nebraska 57-52 in Iowa City. Nebraska returned the favor 84-75 in overtime, thanks to two huge Cale Jacobsen 3-pointers.

Looking ahead to 28-win Nebraska against 23-win Iowa in Houston, with tip-off time set for 6:30 PM, here are three keys and a prediction.

Keep Iowa off the boards

Iowa had an offensive rebounding rate of 35.6 in the first game against Nebraska. The Hawkeyes were at 32 percent against Florida and 44 percent in the win over Clemson in the first round.

Offensive rebounding has been a huge part of Iowa’s success. In the win in Lincoln, Iowa was held to an offensive rebounding rate of just 23 percent. It was still better than Nebraska’s number, but not by enough that it was a huge advantage.

In the second round, Vanderbilt also dominated the offensive rebounding rate, 33-11. The Huskers got just enough offensive rebounds (3). Against Iowa, they will need more. They will also need to keep Iowa from dominating second-chance points.

The crazy thing is that Iowa only averages 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (323rd). So keeping them off the glass shouldn’t be that difficult.

Make 3-point shots

In the first game against Iowa, Nebraska basketball made 20 percent of its 3-point attempts. In the second game, the Huskers made 37 percent. That, outside of the offensive rebounds, was the big difference.

At 35.5 percent, Nebraska is 94th in 3-point percentage. That number has been dropping. Braden Frager, Rienk Mast, and Jamarques Lawrence have gone through some struggles.

All three looked better over the weekend. Their play has been trending in the right direction. Frager averaged 14 points per game during the two NCAA Tournament wins.

Frager needs to get going from beyond the arc. The whole team does. The Huskers kind of live and die by the 3-point shot. At the very least, they can’t shoot 20 percent and expect to advance.

Don’t beat yourself

Two keys for Nebraska this season: low turnovers and low fouls. There were plenty of games early this season in which the Huskers had fewer than 10 fouls and 10 turnovers.

If they could pull that off on Thursday, they will advance. Iowa is a good team. They are playing well. Bennett Stirtz is getting help, too. Tavion Banks scored 20 against Florida. Cooper Koch has been on fire from deep, and both make better than 40 percent from deep.

Yet, Nebraska has the sixth-ranked adjusted defense in college basketball for a reason (Kenpom).  Iowa shot 33 percent in the first game. 48 percent in the second game. Defense wasn’t the issue in that first game.

The Huskers have the defensive prowess to take down the Hawkeyes. As long as they can keep them off the free-throw line and don’t turn the ball over, as Nebraska basketball did on 19 percent of its possessions in the game in Iowa City, it should be playing again on Saturday.

Prediction: Nebraska 72, Iowa 69. 

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