3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska against Indiana

10th-ranked Nebraska basketball is a slight underdog for its matchup against Indiana on Saturday (11 AM CST, Big Ten Network).

The Hoosiers (12-3, 3-1) are a 4.5-point favorite against Fred Hoiberg’s team, which boasts the longest winning streak in college basketball.

Indiana will offer some unique challenges, though. The Hoosiers are one of 15 teams to rank in the top 30 in adjusted offense and defense, according to KenPom. Nebraska basketball isn’t one of those teams. It has the 45th-best offense and the No. 16 defense.

Defensively, the results are similar but different. Nebraska is ninth in college basketball in defensive field-goal percentage (37.9 percent), while Indiana is 26th (39 percent). Indiana makes 10.5 3-pointers per game. Nebraska makes 10.3.

The biggest difference is that Nebraska allows teams to shoot 3-pointers much more than Indiana, which tries to force low-percentage 2s. Indiana allows teams to attempt just 19.3 3-pointers per game. Nebraska lets opponents shoot 31. Indiana is also limiting teams to 28.4 percent (18th) on 3-point shots.

Roster-wise, this is a much different team under head coach Darian DeVries than Mike Woodson. Seven of the top eight players, in terms of minutes played for Indiana, are juniors or seniors. They have one former top-100 recruit, which is much different from a roster that used to be loaded with talent that underachieved.

Lamar Wilkerson is a name for Nebraska fans to know. He shoots 41.8 percent from 3-point range (tops in the Big Ten). He makes 3.4 per game. Tucker DeVries is good for 2.8 triples per game.

Those are Indiana’s two-leading scorers. The Hooisers don’t have a ton of height with just one player, 6-foot-10 or taller, in the rotation. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Get the shots you want

That’s the basic principle of offensive basketball. But there will be a struggle between Nebraska and Indiana. The Huskers want to shoot 3-point shots. Indiana doesn’t want to allow those.

Nebraska shouldn’t force difficult 3s. That’s how you shoot below 30 percent, and if Nebraska does that, that’s a recipe for defeat.

3-point defense has to hold up

Nebraska’s defense is built to allow 3-point shots and protect the rim. That’s a good strategy, but it’s risky against a team like Indiana. The Huskers have been much better on closeouts and contests this season. Their length has helped, and that will need to continue.

The defense has held up well against Wisconsin and Michigan State, other stellar shooting teams.

Rienk and Sam

Rienk Mast and Sam Hoiberg have been the spark for Nebraka basketball this season — Mast on offense and Hoiberg on defense, although they have each been stellar on both ends.

They will need to do what they have done all season. The defense will need to be elite. It’s ranked 16th via KenPom. Higher than the Indiana offense or defense, and if the Nebraska defense is the best unit on the floor, the Huskers will stand a good chance of winning their 20th consecutive game.

Prediction: Nebraska 66, Indiana 64

This one will be close, but I’m betting on the Nebraska defense to win a hard-fought battle.

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