3 bold predictions for Nebraska basketball against Purdue

The 21-2 Nebraska basketball team has another critical game on Tuesday night as the 13th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers will invade PBA.

Nebraska was crushed on the road by the Boilermakers last season, but this is a completely different Nebraska basketball team.

The Huskers are having the best regular season in program history, and just set the record for most conference road wins in a season (6). Nebraska is 1.5 games behind Michigan for first place in the Big Ten.

A win tonight would get the Huskers within one game with seven to go. A regular-season conference championship is something Nebraska basketball hasn’t achieved since 1950, when the Big 8 was still the Big 7.

That’s how long it has been since the Huskers won a regular-season conference title. Beating Purdue is a necessity to make that happen. The Boilermakers are two games back in the loss column, but still have games against Michigan, Nebraska, and Michigan State, three of the four teams ahead of currently tied with Purdue in the standings.

If Purdue wins tonight, only Michigan (1 loss) and Illinois (2 losses) will be ahead of the Boilermakers. This game is also critical for the Big Ten tournament and NCAA tournament seeding.

The Huskers are projected as a two seed right now. Winning this game would help solidify that moving forward.

Keys to victory

As far as the keys to victory, keeping Braden Smith in check is one. Nebraska isn’t going to stop the dynamic Purdue point guard, although you have to hope Sam Hoiberg can slow him down.

Smith is the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year. He’s averaging 15.2 points, 8.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.7 rebounds, and is shooting 49 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from 3-point range.

Smith is a nightmare in ball-screen situations. Trey Kaufman-Renn is one of the best rollers in college basketball and is an excellent finisher around the rim.

Simply put, Purdue is an elite offensive team. The Boilers are 12th (51.1 percent) in field goal percent and 17th in 3-point percentage. Their defense is the weakness, allowing 52 percent conversion on 2-point attempts (233rd) and 32.1 from 3-point range (109th).

Purdue forces 11 turnovers per game, compared to just 9.4 giveaways. Like Nebraska basketball, Purdue ranks in the top 20 nationally in fewest turnovers and fouls.

Purdue is 10th in the Kenpom. Nebraska is 12th. Purdue has the third-best offense; Nebraska has the No. 11 defense. That’s the matchup that could determine who wins. That and the Huskers’ 3-point shooting, which has to be on point.

Nebraska also needs to be closer to 60 percent on 2-point percentage than 40. That’s a battle Nebraska has to win in order to win this game: 2-point field goal percentage.

Now, to the bold predictions.

Pryce Sandfort has one of those days

Purdue has not been a great defensive team this season. They have been even worse in the Big Ten, allowing teams to shoot 34.6 percent from three. The Boilermakers’ 2-point defense in conference play is 16th (56.1 percent allowed).

That bodes well for Sandfort, who is shooting 43.8 percent from beyond the arc in Big Ten play. The focus is obviously his 3-point shooting, but the way he moves without the ball is weapon. Sandfort will hit 4/5 triples. He will also get inside for some 2-pointers and eclipse the 20-point mark for the Big Red.

Sam Hoiberg combines for 10 assists/steals

This might be a battle of the two best point guards in the Big Ten. Jamarques Lawrence will also bring the ball up plenty for Nebraska, but Sam Hoiberg leads the team in assists. He also leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Hoiberg is third in the Big Ten with 2.2 steals per game. He’s a master at getting his hands on the ball, while, incredibly, being the Huskers’ leading defensive rebounder.

Hoiberg will score some, too. But his biggest impact will be creating for his teammates and driving Smith nuts on the defensive end, which he will do.

Smith might score over 20 points. That actually might be preferable to Fletcher Loyer burying a bunch of 3-pointers, yet Hoiberg will make Smith work for it, and he will bring down his efficiency with his pesky All-Big Ten caliber defense.

Nebraska basketball makes a statement

Rienk Mast got his mojo back on Saturday. That was huge for the Huskers, and he will play like it tonight. There will be plenty of chances for him to get some open looks. Mast is his own issue in ball-screen scenarios.

Sandfort, Mast, and Hoiberg will all play well. Braden Frager will bounce back after a 0-for-5 effort from 3-point range on Saturday, and the Nebraska defense will do what it has done all season.

Purdue will score, but not enough to keep up with Nebraska. The Huskers win by double figures.

Prediction: Nebraska 87, Purdue 76.

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