3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. Oregon

Nebraska basketball found a way against 18th-ranked Illinois earlier this week in a win that might not have saved the season but at least kept faint hope alive of making the NCAA tournament.

The Huskers are 3-7 in the Big Ten. They lost six games in a row at one point, but ESPN and Fox Sports both have Nebraska basketball projected among the “next four teams out.” That’s among the first eight teams projected to miss the field.

That’s not a great place to be in, but it could be worse. The Huskers are on the West Coast for the first time as part of Big Ten play and will play back-to-back road games against Oregon and Washington. The Ducks are 5-5 in the Big Ten but 16-5 overall and ranked 16th in the AP poll.

However, the Ducks are 38th in the Kenpom rankings and have lost consecutive games to UCLA and Minnesota on the road. They have lost three of four dating back to a home defeat to Purdue on Jan. 18.

So Oregon will be just as motivated as Nebraska. Truly, the Huskers need to just one game on this two-game swing. Get both, and an NCAA tournament berth isn’t a pipe dream. Yet, a 6-4 finish (9-11 in the Big Ten) would at least give the Huskers a chance going into the final weekend with a shot, but they need wins, starting Sunday.

Here are three keys and a prediction for Nebraska vs. Oregon (-7). Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. CST on Big Ten Network.

Pack the defense

Nebraska basketball didn’t change what it does scheme-wise against Illinois, which still jacked up more than 40 3-pointers, but the “scrappy” defense Fred Hoiberg was talking about earlier in the season returned.

The communication and the defensive rotations were more crisp — the contests were better and Illinois had fewer open 3-point looks because of it.

Oregon is a team that wants to get the ball inside to their 7-footer Nathan Bittle. Point guard Jackson Shelstad was All-Big Ten in the preseason for a reason and both players average over 12 points per game. Bittle averages two blocks per game and 7.4 rebounds.

Oregon ranks 10th in the conference in 3-point percentage during Big Ten play and 221st overall (33.4 percent). However, the Ducks are among the top 100 in field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage as well as free-throw makes and attempts.

Defending the 3-point line has turned into a daily key for Nebraska but they have to protect the rim too.

Win extra possession battles

Coming into this game, Nebraska has the No. 34 adjusted defensive according to Kenpom, while Oregon is ranked 38th. The Ducks are so-so when it comes to forcing turnovers but since the start of Big Ten play, they are forcing just 9.9 per game.

Oregon is -1.7 in turnover margin on a per-game basis in the Big Ten. The Ducks are allowing almost seven steals per game too, which was another key for Nebraska against Illinois.

Nebraska needs to be aggressive and get after Oregon. The Ducks are 15th in the Big Ten in rebounding and 17th in offensive rebounds. Opponents outrebound Oregon by an average of 1.5 on the offensive glass and if the Huskers could find a way to get an edge in turnovers or offensive rebounds, it would go a long way.

Brice Williams needs to be special

Some others will need to step up such as Connor Essegian, Juwan Gary, and Andrew Morgan — maybe the Huskers’ most consistent interior scorer but if Nebraska is going to win a second straight game against a ranked team, they will need another stellar night from Brice Williams.

Gary and Essegian went 10-of-24 against Illinois. Gary didn’t make any 3-pointers. That will need to change against Oregon. Gary will need to have one of those nights like he did against Creighton.

The senior leaders — Gary and Williams need to set the tone. But a win might require Diamondhead Classic Brice Williams. We saw that against Illinois, but can he bring that to the West Coast?

We shall see.

Prediction: Oregon 74, Nebraska 69 

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