3 things learned from another unlikely but likely loss by Nebraska football

Nebraska football has an innate ability to lose games that normal teams find a way to win.

After doing that in the past three weeks against Indiana, Oregon and Washington, Nebraska suffered another improbable loss against Illinois.

According to Cody Nagel of 247Sports, Big Ten teams that have outgained their opponent by more than 50 yards, outrushed their opponent by more than 50 yards and committed no turnovers are 259-3 (a 99% win percentage).

Big Ten teams also win 94% of their games in which they hold their opponent to six points or fewer in the first three quarters. Nebraska football did that against Oregon, Indiana and Washington and somehow lost all three games.

It goes against the law of averages. Maybe it is just Matt Rhule’s poor coaching. Maybe there is a curse, but here are three things we learned from the 24-13 loss to Illinois.

Dana Holgorsen needs to go

We said it last week. We will say it again this week. Holgorsen did almost the exact same thing he did last week. Outside of going empty on fourth-and-1, the Huskers had four drives inside the 40 that yielded zero points.

The Huskers passed the ball 43 times. They ran it 31 times, even though they averaged 4.4 yards per attempt compared to 2.9 for Illinois.

Jamal Rule got 69 yards on 15 carries. It was very similar to last week. Isaiah Mozee got 5.2 yards per carry on six runs. Mekhi Nelson scored a 15-yard touchdown on his only attempt.

It probably won’t happen until after the season, but if Matt Rhule is back, he needs a new offensive coordinator.

Special teams aren’t good enough

It has been clear for weeks that Rhule made a huge mistake when he let Mike Eckler get away. The Huskers haven’t made an impact play in the return game.

There have been a few nice returns, but nothing like we saw from Kenneth Williams against Northwestern and Maryland, or the blocked punt against Michigan State.

The Huskers have missed four field goals over the past three games. One kick was from 54 yards. The others were from 45 yards and in.

Maybe that’s not all on the coaches. However, Bret Bielema saw something that gave him the confidence to attempt a fake field goal on fourth-and-12.

When you consider Nebraska attempted a long kick and missed, while Illinois used a fake field goal to score a touchdown, the special teams cost the Huskers more than 10 points in this game.

The score was tied. It was the opening drive of the third quarter, and instead of getting a turnover on downs, Illinois got a free touchdown because it saw something that could be exploited.

In the Big Ten, with razor-thin margins, you can’t allow special teams to cost you multiple games this season, but there has been a massive gaffe in each of the last four games, whether it’s a missed kick, a kneel on a punt or this.

Michigan State also blocked a punt. Nebraska got saved by a defensive holding call that had nothing to do with the block.

The special teams have been Ed Foley level, and that’s absolutely a factor in the 5-4 record.

The results aren’t going to change

Players have to make plays. That’s true. Passes can’t be dropped. Anthony Colandrea should have changed the play on fourth-and-1.

Yet, coaches also need to coach players on what to do. When you get a procedure penalty to set back the opening drive, then a holding penalty, followed by a missed field goal, it doesn’t take much in-depth thought to realize why this team has lost four in a row.

All four teams they lost to won nine games last season. They have won games in November. Rhule is now 1-6 in Big Ten games in November on the road.

All these losses feel random. Yet, it’s hard to feel like mistake-prone football is a coincidence, and even though it’s meaningless to say, the Huskers would probably be 9-0 with a competent head coach.

Teams won games in the same situation as Nebraska was against Indiana, Oregon and Washington after three quarters 94% of the time.

Big Ten teams that did what Nebraska did against Illinois statistically have won 99% of the time over the past four years.

Nebraska is 0-4 in those games. That’s not an accident. Firing Matt Rhule might not happen, but until it does, or he magically gets good at coaching, the results won’t change.

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