3 keys and a prediction for Nebraska basketball vs. UCF in College Basketball Crown championship

After beating 26-win Boise State on Saturday, Nebraska basketball can do something it hasn’t done in 29 years on Sunday by winning a postseason tournament championship.

The last time Nebraska basketball did that was the 1996 NIT. The Huskers have already clinched back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time in 26 years, and just the third time in school history.

Before the past two seasons, Danny Nee was the only Nebraska basketball head coach to win 20 games in back-to-back seasons. Fred Hoiberg is now in that group and can win a postseason tournament just like Nee did back in 1996.

Some fans have mocked the “Crown” but the field is much better than the NIT. Nebraska has beaten three top-100 teams, according to the Kenpom rankings, to advance to the final and will need to beat another in UCF on Sunday (65th).

Both teams have 20 wins. Tip-off time is set for 4:30 PM CST on Fox, and here are three keys, plus a prediction.

Defense and rebounding, again

Nebraska basketball caught fire from 3-point range on Saturday. The Huskers made a season-high 12 triples in the win, but defense is the biggest reason Nebraska advanced.

Nebraska’s size and length bothered Boise State. The Broncos ranked 20th in 2-point offense going into the game, shooting 57 percent, but were held to 44 percent (0.97 points per possession).

The Huskers also allowed just five offensive rebounds. That will be a key on Sunday against a UCF team that ranks 58th in college hoops with 12.2 offensive boards per game. Nebraska ranks 68th in defensive rebounding.

UCF isn’t a great shooting team — the Knights don’t rank in the top 100 in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage, or 2-point percentage, ranking 178th or worse in each category.

However, the Knights dominate the glass and rank 26th in free-throw attempts per game. So playing solid defense, without fouling, and rebounding will be key.

Slowing down Darius Johnson, who averaged 17 points this season and scored 42 against Villanova in the win on Saturday, will be a huge key to that.

Keep the 3-point battle even

UCF loves to shoot 3-pointers (60th in attempts) and allow 3-pointers (269th in 3-point attempts allowed). The Knights shoot 34.1 percent from deep and are 178th in 3-point percentage. They allow teams to shoot 32.6 percent from three and have made 8.9 per game this season, allowing 7.9.

Nebraska makes 7.5 triples per game, but the Huskers allow an average of 9.5 and rank 228th in defensive 3-point percentage. It’s been a weakness all season, and Nebraska is allowing teams to make 35 percent in this tournament.

The offense blitzed Georgetown and did the same thing to Boise State, so it didn’t really matter. Nebraska basketball has allowed 21 treys in the past two games. They have also made 21 triples, and if they can keep the 3-point battle near even, they should win the Crown on Sunday.

Nebraska basketball stars need to shine

There are two stars on this team, Brice Williams and Juwan Gary. They have been the driving force behind most of the wins this season, and that will need to be the case on Sunday.

During the first three games of the College Basketball Crown, Williams and Gary have averaged 42.6 points combined. Williams scored 14 after 58 in the first two rounds. Gary, after scoring 18 and 17 points, delivered a 4 for 4 performance from beyond the arc to score 21.

Williams and Gary are a huge reason why Nebraska even decided to play in this tournament. If the Huskers are going to win, they’ll need Williams and Gary to be close to the 42 points they have averaged (combined) so far in this tournament.

Prediction: Nebraska 81, UCF 74 

Against a UCF team that ranks 111th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Nebraska should be able to take advantage. The Huskers have also held all three opponents in the College Basketball Crown to 1.0 points per possession or less. Boise State scored 0.97. It will be a fast-paced game, but Nebraska’s defense is better, and Williams will score at least 20 in a postseason championship win.

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